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6988 Publications
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  • Modeling for insights not numbers: The long-term low-carbon transformation

    Limiting global warming to prevent dangerous climate change requires drastically reducing global greenhouse gases emissions and a transformation towards a low-carbon society. Existing energy- and climate-economic modeling approaches that are informing policy and decision makers in shaping the future net-zero emissions society are increasingly seen with skepticism regarding their ability to forecast the long-term evolution of highly complex, nonlinear social-ecological systems. We present a st...

    Impact of Climate Change on Global Sensitivity of Lake Stratification

    Global climate change could significantly influence hydrophysical processes in lakes and reservoirs and affect aquatic ecosystems. The present work addresses possible impacts on thermal household of standing waters. Sensitivity studies were performed to identify the influence of air temperature changes on lake stratification patterns for different geographic zones of the globe. Ice cover and convective overturn events were selected as indicators. Hypothetical waterbodies used in this series o...

    The Economics of Risks to Life

    This study asks two questions: (1) What is the net value to the representative individual over his life-time of activities that alter age-specific mortality risks? (2) What is the cost to the representative individual of activities that take a life at random at a given age? Results, derived from an economic-demographic model with full age-specific accounting have a strong actuarial flavor: alterations in the mortality schedule, caused say by a medical breakthrough, should be assessed on ...

    A Tale of Two Cycles - Distinguishing Quasi-cycles and Limit Cycles in the Finite Predator-Prey Populations

    Periodic predator-prey dynamics in constant environments are usually taken as indicative of deterministic limit cycles. It is known, however, that demographic stochasticity in finite populations can also give rise to regular population cycles, even when the corresponding deterministic models predict a stable equilibrium. Specifically, such quasi-cycles are expected in stochastic versions of deterministic models exhibiting equilibrium dynamics with weakly damped oscillations. The existence of ...
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