Institute of Transport Studies, University of Leeds
Using hierarchical logit modal split models, and trip data from West Yorkshire, the effects of pursuing a number of different operating strategies for local rail services were analysed. These were judged against two possible management objectives which railway operators might be set, to find which policies best served each objective.\ud \ud The more pragmatic objective of maximising rail passenger-km. turned out to give similar policy implications to an objective of maximising social benefit. These weredthat both objectives could best be satisfied by a combination of lower fares and replacement of lightly loaded services by express bus. Conclusions on frequencies were less clearcut, but it appeared that very high elasticities would be required to justify peak frequencies above the minimum necessary to cope with the traffic. The major difference between the objectives came in the treatment of off-peak rail fares, where reductions could bring larger increases in passenger kilometres but similar or smaller social benefits per pound to peak reductions. \ud \ud Much cruder estimates are given of the effects of varying fares on two inter city and one London suburban routes. It is shown that a fares increase on the London suburban service, if used to finance a reduction on the local provincial services, would bring in 3 times as many passenger kilometres; if used to finance a reduction on the inter city routes, the figure would be 2-4 times. Whether such a diversion would be justified depends on the external benefits of the London suburban services, measurement of which is very difficult and beyond the scope of this study.
White Rose Research Online (http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/2399/1/ITS329_WP132_uploadable.pdf)