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Understanding how criminals decide where and when to offend

Title
Understanding how criminals decide where and when to offend
Funding
ARC | Discovery Projects
Contract (GA) number
DP110100100
Start Date
2011/01/01
End Date
2014/12/31
Open Access mandate
no
Organizations
-
More information
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP110100100

 

  • Testing Ecological Theories of Offender Spatial Decision Making Using a Discrete Choice Model

    Research demonstrates that crime is spatially concentrated. However, most research relies on information about where crimes occur, without reference to where offenders reside. This study examines how the characteristics of neighborhoods and their proximity to offender home locations affect offender spatial decision making. Using a discrete choice model and data for detected incidents of theft from vehicles (TFV), we test predictions from two theoretical perspectives—crime pattern and social d...

    Burglar Target Selection

    Townsley, Michael; Birks, Daniel; Bernasco, Wim; Ruiter, Stijn; Johnson, Shane D.; White, Gentry; Baum, Scott (2015)
    Projects: ARC | Understanding how criminals decide where and when to offend (DP110100100)
    Objectives: This study builds on research undertaken by Bernasco and Nieuwbeerta and explores the generalizability of a theoretically derived offender target selection model in three cross-national study regions. Methods: Taking a discrete spatial choice approach, we estimate the impact of both environment- and offender-level factors on residential burglary placement in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Australia. Combining cleared burglary data from all study regions in a single stati...

    Learning where to offend: Effects of past on future burglary locations

    Informed by a growing literature on space-time patterns of repeat and near repeat burglary victimization, a crime location choice model was used to test whether burglars are attracted to areas they previously targeted. Using data in 3337 detected burglaries from one UK police force, and accounting for the distance to the offender's residence, and for other factors that make target areas attractive to burglars, it was demonstrated that burglars were more likely to commit a burglary in an area ...
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