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From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems

Title
From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems
Funding
ARC | Discovery Projects
Contract (GA) number
DP0988049
Start Date
2009/01/01
End Date
2011/12/31
Open Access mandate
no
Organizations
-
More information
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP0988049

 

  • Universal Prediction of Selected Bits

    Lattimore, Tor; Hutter, Marcus; Gavane, Vaibhav (2011)
    Projects: ARC | From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems (DP0988049)
    Many learning tasks can be viewed as sequence prediction problems. For example, online classification can be converted to sequence prediction with the sequence being pairs of input/target data and where the goal is to correctly predict the target data given input data and previous input/target pairs. Solomonoff induction is known to solve the general sequence prediction problem, but only if the entire sequence is sampled from a computable distribution. In the case of classification and discri...

    Principles of Solomonoff Induction and AIXI

    Sunehag, Peter; Hutter, Marcus (2011)
    Projects: ARC | From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems (DP0988049)
    We identify principles characterizing Solomonoff Induction by demands on an agent's external behaviour. Key concepts are rationality, computability, indifference and time consistency. Furthermore, we discuss extensions to the full AI case to derive AIXI.

    Asymptotically Optimal Agents

    Lattimore, Tor; Hutter, Marcus (2011)
    Projects: ARC | From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems (DP0988049)
    Artificial general intelligence aims to create agents capable of learning to solve arbitrary interesting problems. We define two versions of asymptotic optimality and prove that no agent can satisfy the strong version while in some cases, depending on discounting, there does exist a non-computable weak asymptotically optimal agent.

    (Non-)Equivalence of Universal Priors

    Wood, Ian; Sunehag, Peter; Hutter, Marcus (2011)
    Projects: ARC | From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems (DP0988049)
    Ray Solomonoff invented the notion of universal induction featuring an aptly termed "universal" prior probability function over all possible computable environments. The essential property of this prior was its ability to dominate all other such priors. Later, Levin introduced another construction --- a mixture of all possible priors or `universal mixture'. These priors are well known to be equivalent up to multiplicative constants. Here, we seek to clarify further the relationships between t...

    No Free Lunch versus Occam's Razor in Supervised Learning

    Lattimore, Tor; Hutter, Marcus (2011)
    Projects: ARC | From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems (DP0988049)
    The No Free Lunch theorems are often used to argue that domain specific knowledge is required to design successful algorithms. We use algorithmic information theory to argue the case for a universal bias allowing an algorithm to succeed in all interesting problem domains. Additionally, we give a new algorithm for off-line classification, inspired by Solomonoff induction, with good performance on all structured problems under reasonable assumptions. This includes a proof of the efficacy of the...

    Reinforcement Learning via AIXI Approximation

    Veness, Joel; Ng, Kee Siong; Hutter, Marcus; Silver, David (2010)
    Projects: ARC | From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems (DP0988049)
    This paper introduces a principled approach for the design of a scalable general reinforcement learning agent. This approach is based on a direct approximation of AIXI, a Bayesian optimality notion for general reinforcement learning agents. Previously, it has been unclear whether the theory of AIXI could motivate the design of practical algorithms. We answer this hitherto open question in the affirmative, by providing the first computationally feasible approximation to the AIXI agent. To deve...

    Axioms for Rational Reinforcement Learning

    Sunehag, Peter; Hutter, Marcus (2011)
    Projects: ARC | From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems (DP0988049)
    We provide a formal, simple and intuitive theory of rational decision making including sequential decisions that affect the environment. The theory has a geometric flavor, which makes the arguments easy to visualize and understand. Our theory is for complete decision makers, which means that they have a complete set of preferences. Our main result shows that a complete rational decision maker implicitly has a probabilistic model of the environment. We have a countable version of this result t...

    Consistency of Feature Markov Processes

    Sunehag, Peter; Hutter, Marcus (2010)
    Projects: ARC | From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems (DP0988049)
    We are studying long term sequence prediction (forecasting). We approach this by investigating criteria for choosing a compact useful state representation. The state is supposed to summarize useful information from the history. We want a method that is asymptotically consistent in the sense it will provably eventually only choose between alternatives that satisfy an optimality property related to the used criterion. We extend our work to the case where there is side information that one can t...

    Feature Reinforcement Learning In Practice

    Nguyen, Phuong; Sunehag, Peter; Hutter, Marcus (2011)
    Projects: ARC | From Universal Induction to Intelligent Systems (DP0988049)
    Following a recent surge in using history-based methods for resolving perceptual aliasing in reinforcement learning, we introduce an algorithm based on the feature reinforcement learning framework called PhiMDP. To create a practical algorithm we devise a stochastic search procedure for a class of context trees based on parallel tempering and a specialized proposal distribution. We provide the first empirical evaluation for PhiMDP. Our proposed algorithm achieves superior performance to the c...
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