LOGIN TO YOUR ACCOUNT

Username
Password
Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:

CREATE AN ACCOUNT

Or use your Academic/Social account:

Congratulations!

You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.

Important!

Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message

CREATE AN ACCOUNT

Name:
Username:
Password:
Verify Password:
E-mail:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Gualdi, Silvio; Alessandri, Andrea; Navarra, Antonio (2005)
Publisher: Co-Action Publishing
Journal: Tellus A
Languages: English
Types: Article
Subjects:

Classified by OpenAIRE into

arxiv: Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
In this paper, we assess the skill of a seasonal forecast system to predict El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) anomalies and the impact that the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric component has on the forecasts of the growing phase of strong ENSO events. The analysis has been carried out on retrospective six-month forecasts for the period 1973–2001 performed with the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (SINTEX) in the framework of the DEMETER project. Each forecast is formed by an ensemble of nine integrations that start from perturbed initial conditions. In order to consider the possible impact of the seasonal cycle on the forecasts, four different dates of the year have been chosen as initial conditions. The results indicate that, in general, the model is reasonably good in predicting the distribution of the seasonal anomalies in the tropical Pacific. However, it is also shown that the model predictions underestimate substantially the amplitude of the anomalies during the developing phase of intense El Niño episodes. The forecasts of strong ENSO events in the period here considered have been repeated, increasing the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric component. In these experiments, both the ocean model component and the oceanic initial conditions are unchanged. During the decaying phase of the oscillation, the high-resolution and low-resolution versions of the model produce similar results and the forecasts are in general good agreement with the observations. During the developing phase of ENSO, the low-resolution version of the model is unable to sustain the growth of the coupled disturbance.With the low-resolution atmosphere, the initial perturbation of the coupled system decays and the anomalies in the tropical Pacific tend to vanish very quickly. With the high-resolution atmosphere, on the other hand, the model appears to be able to sustain the growth of the disturbance, improving the quality of the forecasts both for El Niño and La Niña cases.
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • AchutaRao, K. and Sperber, K. R. 2002. Simulation of the El Nin˜o Southern Oscillation: results from the coupled model intercomparison project. Climate Dyn. 29, 191-209.
    • Corti, S., Gualdi, S. and Navarra, A. 2003. Analysis of the mid-latitude weather regimes in the 200-yr control integration of the SINTEX model. Ann. Geophys. 46, 27-37.
    • Davey, M., Huddleston, M., Sperber, K., Braconnot, P., Bryan, F. and co-authors. 2001. Stoic: a study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions. Climate Dyn. 18, 403-420.
    • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Hagedorn, R. and Palmer, T. N. 2005. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - II. Calibration and combination. Tellus 57A, 234-252.
    • Fedorov, A. and Philander, S. G. H. 2000. Is El Nin˜o changing? Science 288, 1997-2002.
    • Fischer, M. 2002. ENSO predictions with coupled ocean-atmosphere models. In: Ocean Forecasting (eds N. Pinardi and J. Woods). Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 307-338.
    • Gualdi, S., Navarra, A., Guilyardi, E. and Delecluse, P. 2003a. The SINTEX coupled GCM. The tropical Indo-Pacific region. Ann. Geophys. 46, 1-26.
    • Gualdi, S., Guilyardi, E., Navarra, A., Masina, S. and Delecluse, P. 2003b. The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean as simulated by a CGCM. Climate Dyn. 20, 567-582.
    • Guilyardi, E., Delecluse, P., Gualdi, S. and Navarra, A. 2003. Mechanisms for ENSO phase change in a coupled GCM. J. Climate 16, 1141-1158.
    • Guilyardi, E., Gualdi, S., Slingo, J., Navarra, A., Delecluse, P. and coauthors. 2004. Representing El Nin˜o in coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs: the dominant role of atmospheric component. J. Climate 17, 4623-4629.
    • Hagedorn, R., Doblas-Reyes, F. J. and Palmer, T. N. 2005. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept. Tellus 57A, this issue.
    • Kanamitsu, M., Kumar, A., Juang, H.-M. H., Schemm, J.-K., Wang, W. and co-authors. 2002. NCEP dynamical seasonal forecast system 2000. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83, 1019-1037.
    • Latif, M., Anderson, D., Barnett, T., Cane, M., Kleeman, R. and coauthors. 1998. A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 14 375-14 393.
    • Madec, G., Delecluse, P., Imbard, M. and Levy, C. 1998. OPA 8.1 ocean general circulation model reference manual. Tech. Rep. LODYC/IPSL Note 11, 91 pp.
    • Masina, S., Pinardi, N. and Navarra, A. 2001. A global ocean temperature and altimeter data assimilation system for studies of climate variability. Clim. Dyn. 17, 687-700.
    • Mason, S. J., Goddard, L., Graham, N. E., Yulaeva, E., Sun, L. and coauthors. 1999. The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Nin˜o event. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80, 1853-1873.
    • Neelin, D. J., Battisti, D. S., Hirst, A. C., Jin, F.-F., Wakata, Y. and coauthors. 1998. ENSO theory. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 14 261-14 290.
    • Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, P., Davey, M. and co-authors. 2004. Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 85, 853-872.
    • Perigaud, C., Melin, F. and Cassou, C. 2000. ENSO simulated by intermediate coupled models and evaluated with observations over 1970-98. Part I: role of the off-equatorial variability. J. Climate 13, 1605-1634.
    • Philander, S. G. H. 1990. El Nin˜o, La Nin˜a and the Southern Oscillation, Academic, San Diego, 293 pp.
    • Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Frich, P., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K. and co-authors. 2000. SST and sea-ice fields for ERA-40. Proceedings of the 2nd WCRP International Conference on Reanalyses, Reading, UK, August 1999, WCRP-109, WMO/TD-No. 985, pp. 18-21.
    • Reynolds, R. W. and Smith, T. M. 1994. Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. J. Climate 7, 929- 948.
    • Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Cristoph, M., Claussen, M. and co-authors. 1996. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institut fu¨r Meteorologie Rep. 218, 94 pp.
    • Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S. 1987. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with El Ni n˜o/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115, 1606-1626.
    • Schneider, E. K., DeWitt, D. G., Rosati, A., Kirtman, B. P., Ji, L. and co-authors. 2003. Retrospective ENSO forecasts: sensitivity to atmospheric model and ocean resolution. Mon. Wea. Rev. 131, 3038-3060 Stern, W. and Miyakoda, K. 1995. Feasibility of seasonal forecasts inferred from multiple GCM simulations. J. Climate 8, 1071-1085.
    • Valcke, S., Terray, L. and Piacentini, A. 2000. The OASIS coupler user guide version 2.4. Tech. Rep. TR/CMGC/00-10, CERFACS, 88 pp.
    • Webster, P. J. 1995. The annual cycle of and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 56, 33-55.
    • Xie, P. and Arkin, P. A. 1997. Global precipitation: A 17-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates and numerical model outputs. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 2539- 2558.
    • Zebiak, S. E. and Cane, M. A. 1987. A model of El Ni n˜o Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115, 2262-2278.
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article

Collected from