Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:


Or use your Academic/Social account:


You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.


Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message


Verify Password:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Røsting, B.; Kristjánsson, J. E. (2008)
Publisher: Co-Action Publishing
Journal: Tellus A
Languages: English
Types: Article
In this study, we present an example of the benefit that can be achieved from carefully designed manual modification of a numerical weather prediction analysis. The case to be investigated is the severe winter storm of 7–8 January 2005, affecting the North Sea and southern Scandinavia. Modifications of potential vorticity (PV) fields according to features in water vapour (WV) images are combined with information from singular vectors (SV) in an attempt to improve the initial state over data sparse regions west of the British Isles. The apparent mismatch between features in the WV image and the upper level PV anomalies in the numerical analysis is corrected, mainly at levels indicated as sensitive by the fastest growing SVs, in order to maximize the impact on the simulation. Model reruns, based on the inverted corrected PV fields, were then performed. The manual correction of PV fields led to a substantial improvement of the simulations of the storm. The PV modifications were carried out by a digital analysis system, implemented at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. This system allows the PV modifications to be done interactively within an operational time limit.
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • Appenzeller, C. and Davies, H. C. 1992. Structure of stratospheric intrusions into the troposphere. Nature 358, 570-572.
    • Bishop, C. H., Etherton, B. J. and Majumdar, S. J. 2001. Adaptiv sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part 1: theoretical aspects. Mon. Wea. Rev. 129, 420-436.
    • Bouttier, F. and Kelly, G. 2001. Observing-system experiments in the ECMWF 4D-Var data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127, 1469-1488.
    • Browning, K. A. 1997. The dry intrusion perspective of extra-tropical cyclone development. Meteorol. Appl. 4, 317-324
    • Browning, K. A., 2005. Observational synthesis of mesoscale structures within an explosively developing cyclone. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131, 603-623.
    • Browning, K. A., Thorpe, A. J., Montani, A., Parsons, D., Griffiths, M. and co-authors. 2000. Interactions of tropopause depressions with an ex-tropical cyclone and sensitivity of forecasts to analysis errors. Mon. Wea. Rev. 128, 1734-1755.
    • Buizza, R. and Palmer, T. N. 1995. The singular vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 1434-1456.
    • Buizza, R. and Montani, A. 1999. Targeting observations using singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci. 56, 2965-2985.
    • Charney, J. G. 1955. The use of the primitive equations of motions in numerical prediction. Tellus 7, 22-26.
    • Coutinho, M. and Hoskins, B. 2003. Moist Singular Vectors, Third Report, Special Project SPGBDSV, available on the web.
    • Coutinho, M. M., Hoskins, B. J. and Buizza, R. 2003. The influence of physical processes on extratropical singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci. 61, 195-209.
    • Davis, C. A. 1992. Piecewise potential vorticity inversion. J. Atmos. Sci. 49, 1397-1411.
    • Davis, C. A. and Emanuel, K. A. 1991. Potential vorticity diagnostics of cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev. 119, 1929-1953.
    • Demirtas, M. and Thorpe, A. J. 1999. Sensitivity of short range weather forecasts to local potential vorticity modifications. Mon. Wea. Rev. 127, 922-939.
    • ECMWF Newsletter No 83-1999. PrepIFS-Global modelling via the Internet.
    • Hello, G. and Arbogast, P. 2004. Two different methods to correct the initial conditions applied to the storm of 27 December 1999 over southern France. Meteorol. Appl. 11, 41-57.
    • Hoskins, B. J., McIntyre, M. E. and Robertson, A. W. 1985. On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 111, 877-946.
    • Jung, T., Klinker, E. and Uppala, S. 2005. Reanalysis and reforecast of three major European storms of the twentieth century using the ECMWF forecasting system. Part 2. Ensemble forecasts. Meteorol. Appl. 12, 111-122.
    • Kalnay, E. 2003. Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, ISBN 0521 79629 6, pp. 205,253.
    • Kristja´nsson, J. E., Thorsteinsson, S. and Ulfarsson, G. F. 1999. Potential vorticity based interpretation of the 'Greenhouse Low', 2-3 February 1991. Tellus 51A, 233-248.
    • Majumdar, S. J., Bishop, C. H., Buizza, R. and Gelaro, R. 2002. A Comparison of ensemble-transform Kalman-filter targeting guidance with ECMWF and NRL total-energy singular-vector guidance. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128, 2527-2549.
    • Mansfield, D. 1996. The use of potential vorticity as an operational forecasting tool. Meteorol. Appl. 3, 195-210.
    • Montani, A. 1998. Targeting of Observations to Improve Forecasts of Cyclogenesis. PhD Thesis. University of Reading.
    • Montani, A., Thorpe, A. J., Buizza, R. and Unden, P. 1999. Forecast skill of the ECMWF model using targeted observations during FASTEX. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 3219-3240.
    • Morgan, C. M. 2000. A Potential Vorticity and Wave Activity Diagnosis of Optimal Perturbation Evolution. J. Atmos. Sci. 58, 2518- 2544.
    • Persson, A. 2002. Atmospheric Motions. Volume 1: The Earth System: Physical and Chemical Dimensions of Global Environmental Change. Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, ISBN 0471-97796-9, 221-242.
    • Petersen, G. N., Majumdar, S. J. and Thorpe, A. J. 2007. The properties of sensitive area predictions based on the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF). Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 697-710.
    • Rabier, F., Jarvinen, E., Klinker, E., Mahfouf, J. F. and Simmons, A. 2000. The ECMWF operational implementation of four-dimensional variational assimilation. I: Experimental results with simplified physics. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 126, 1143-1170.
    • Røsting, B. and Kristja´nsson, J. E. 2006. Improving simulations of severe winter storms by initial modification of potential vorticity in sensitive regions. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132, 2625-2652.
    • Røsting, B., Kristja´nsson, J. E. and Sunde, J. 2003. The sensitivity of numerical simulations to initial modifications of potential vorticity - a case-study. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129, 2697-2718.
    • Santurette, P. and Georgiev, C. G. 2005. Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Applying Satellite Water Vapor Imagery and Potential Vorticity Analysis. Elsevier Academic Press, London, ISBN: 0-12-619262-6.
    • Shapiro, M., Wernli, H., Bao, J. W., Methven, J., Zou, X. and co-authors. 1999. A planetary-scale to mesoscale perspective of the life cycles of extratropical cyclones: the bridge between theory and observations. In: The Life Cycles of Extratropical Cyclones. American Meteorological Society, Boston, ISBN 1-878220-35-7, 139-185.
    • Shutts, G. J. 1990. Dynamical aspects of the October storm, 1987: A study of a successful fine-mesh simulation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 116, 1315-1347.
    • Verkley, W. T. M., Vosbeek, P. W. C. and Moene, A. R. 2005. Manually adjusting a numerical weather analysis in terms of potential vorticity using three dimensional variational data assimilation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131, 1713-1736.
    • Weldon, R. B. and Holmes, S. J, 1991. Water vapor imagery: interpretation and applications to weather analysis and forecasting, NOAA Technical Report, NESDIS 57, NOAA, US Department of Commerce, Washington D. C., 213 pp.
    • Young, M. V., Monk, G. A. and Browning, K. A. 1987. Interpretation of a rapidly deepening cyclone. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 113, 1089-1100.
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.
  • BioEntity Site Name
    3theProtein Data Bank

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article

Collected from