LOGIN TO YOUR ACCOUNT

Username
Password
Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:

CREATE AN ACCOUNT

Or use your Academic/Social account:

Congratulations!

You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.

Important!

Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message

CREATE AN ACCOUNT

Name:
Username:
Password:
Verify Password:
E-mail:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Gouirand, Isabelle; Moberg, Anders; Zorita, Eduardo (2007)
Publisher: Co-Action Publishing
Journal: Tellus A
Languages: English
Types: Article
Subjects:
The atmosphere-ocean model ECHO-G, run with solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing for the past millennium, is used to analyse winter and summer temperature variability in Scandinavia. Relationships with atmospheric circulation, North Atlantic SSTs and Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperatures are investigated at timescales longer and shorter than 10 yr. The simulated response to volcanic forcing is also analysed. Realistic relationships with the atmospheric circulation, with some deficiencies in summer, are found. High-frequency co-variations with SSTs and NH temperatures are too weak, but low-frequency co-variations with NH temperatures in winter are apparently too strong. The summer cooling response to volcanic forcing is realistic, but the expected winter warming is absent. The simulated long-term temperature evolution agrees broadly with proxy data. Combinations of several forcing factors can lead to decadal and multidecadal anomalies from the centennial trends. Decreased solar forcing can account for cold intervals in both summer and winter. A systematic negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase can explain the coldest winter temperatures during 1590–1650. Several strong volcanic forcing events can have contributed to a simultaneous summer cooling. Proxy data also indicate cold summers and winters, and a negative NAO in winter, in the same period.
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • AchutaRao, K., Covey, C., Doutriaux, C., Fiorino, M., Gleckler, P. and co-authors. 2004. An appraisal of coupled climate model simulations. UCRL-TR-200550, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, California, 183 pp.
    • Bard, E., Raisbeck, G. Yiou, F. and Jouzel, J. 2000. Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic nuclides. Tellus 52B, 985-992.
    • Basnett, T. and Parker, D. 1997. Development of the Global Mean Sea Level Pressure Data Set GMSLP2. Climate Research Technical note, 79, Hadley Centre, Meteorological Office, Exeter, UK.
    • Bauer, E., Claussen, M., Brovkin, V. and Huenerbein, A. 2003. Assessing climate forcings of the Earth system for the past millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30(6), 1276, doi:10.1029/2002GL016639.
    • Bellouin, N., Boucher, O. Haywood, J. and Reddy, M. S. 2005. Global estimate of aerosol radiative forcing from satellite measurements. Nature 438, 1138-1141.
    • Bergstro¨m, H. and Moberg, A. 2002. Daily air temperature and pressure series for Uppsala (1722-1998). Climatic Change 53, 213-252.
    • Bertrand, C., Loutre, M.-F., Crucifix, M. and Berger, A. 2002. Climate of the last millennium: a sensitivity study. Tellus 54A, 221-244.
    • Bjerknes, J. 1962. Synoptic survey of the interaction of sea and atmosphere in the North Atlantic. Geofysiske Publikasjoner, Geophysica Norvegica 24, 115-145.
    • Bra´zdil, R., Pfister, C., Wanner, H., von Storch, H. and Luterbacher, J. 2005. Historical climatology in Europe-the state of the art. Climatic Change 70, 363-430.
    • Briffa, K. R., Jones, P. D., Bartholin, T. S., Eckstein, D., Schweingruber, F. H. and co-authors. 1992. Fennoscandian summers from AD 500: temperature changes on short and long time scale. Climate Dyn. 7, 111-119.
    • Bu¨rger, G., Fast, I. and Cubasch, U. 2006. Climate reconstruction by regression-32 variations on a theme. Tellus 58A, 227-235.
    • Casty, C., Handorf, D., Raible, C. C., Gonza´lez-Rouco, J. F., Weisheimer, A., Xoplaki, E. and co-authors. 2005a. Recurrent climate winter regimes in reconstructed and modelled 500 hPa geopotential height fields over the North Atlantic/European sector 1659-1990. Climate Dyn. 24, 809-822.
    • Casty, C., Handorf, D. and Sempf, M. 2005b. Combined winter climate regimes over the North Atlantic/European sector 1766-2000. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L13801, doi:10.1029/2005GL022431.
    • Chen, D. 2000. A monthly circulation climatology for Sweden and its application to a winter temperature case study. Int. J. Climatol. 20, 1067-1076.
    • Chen, D. and Hellstro¨m, C. 1999. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the regional temperature variability in Sweden: spatial and temporal variations. Tellus 51A, 505-516.
    • Crowley, T. 2000. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289, 270-276.
    • Ebisuzaki, W. 1997. A method to estimate the statistical significance of a correlation when the data are serially correlated. J. Climate 10, 2147-2153.
    • Etheridge, D. M., Steele, L. P., Langenfelds, R. L., Francey, R. J., Barnola, J.-M. and co-authors. 1996. Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn. J. Geophys. Res. 101 (D2), 4115-4128.
    • Etheridge, D. M., Steele, L. P., Francey, R. J. and Langenfelds, R. L. 1998. Atmospheric methane between 1000 A.D. and present: Evidence of anthropogenic emissions and climatic variability. J. Geophys. Res. 103(D13), 15979-15994.
    • Fisher-Bruns, I., von Storch, H., Gonza´lez-Rouco, J. F. and Zorita, E. 2005. Modelling the variability of midlatitude storm activity on decadal to century time scales. Climate Dyn. 25, 461-476.
    • Foukal, P., North, G. and Wigley, T. 2004. A stellar view on solar variations and climate. Science 306, 68-69.
    • Goosse, H., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A. and Bradley, R. 2005. Internal and forced climate variability during the last millennium: a model-data comparison using ensemble simulations. Quat. Sci. Rev. 24, 1345- 1360.
    • Gonza´lez-Rouco, J. F., von Storch, H. and Zorita, E. 2003. Deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30(21), 2116, doi:10.1029/2003GL018264.
    • Gonza´lez-Rouco, J. F., Beltrami, H., Zorita, E. and von Storch, H. 2006. Simulation and inversion of borehole temperature profiles in surrogate climates: Spatial distribution and surface coupling. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L01703, doi:10.1029/2005GL024693.
    • Gro¨tzner, A., Latif, M. and Barnett, T. P. 1998. A decadal climate cycle in the North Atlantic Ocean as simulated by the ECHO coupled GCM. J. Climate 11, 831-847.
    • Hurrell, J. W. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269, 676-679.
    • Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G. and Visbeck, M. 2003. An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In: The North Atlantic Oscillation. Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact (eds.J. W. Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen and M. Visbeck). Geophysical Monograph 134, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., pp. 1-35.
    • IPCC. 2001. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. In: Contribution of Working group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel of Climate Change (eds.J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden and co-editors). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, 881 pp.
    • Jacobeit, J., Jo¨nsson, P., Ba¨rring, L., Beck, C. and Ekstro¨m, M. 2001. Zonal indices for Europe 1780-1995 and running correlations with temperature. Climatic Change 48, 219-241.
    • Jones, G. S., Gregory, J. M., Stott, P. A., Tett, S. F. B. and Thorpe, R. B. 2005. An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption. Climate Dynamics 25, 725-738.
    • Jones, P. D. and Moberg, A. 2003. Hemispheric large-scale surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. Climate 16, 206-223.
    • Jones, P. D., Moberg, A., Osborn, T. J. and Briffa, K. R. 2003. Surface climate responses to explosive volcanic eruptions seen in long European temperature records and mid-to-high latitude tree-ring density around the Northern Hemisphere. In: Volcanism and the Earth's Atmosphere (eds.A. Robock and C. Oppenheimer). Geophysical Monograph 139. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., pp. 239-254.
    • Kaplan, A., Cane, M., Kushnir, Y., Clement, A., Blumenthal, M. and coauthors 1998. Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 18567-18589.
    • Kodera, K. 1994. Influence of volcanic eruptions on the troposphere through stratospheric dynamical processes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J. Geophys. Res. 99(D1), 1273-1282.
    • Lean, J. and Rind, D. 2001. Earth's response to a variable sun. Science 292, 234-236.
    • Lean, J., Beer, J. and Bradley, R. 1995. Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 3195-3198.
    • Lean, J. L., Wang, Y.-M. and Sheeley, Jr., N. R. 2002. The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's total and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 2224, doi:10.1029/2002GL015880.
    • Legutke, S. and Voss, R. 1999. The Hamburg Atmosphere-Ocean coupled circulation model ECHO-G. Technical Report 18, DKRZ, Hamburg, 62 pp.
    • Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Dietrich, D., Rickli, R., Jacobeit, J. and co-authors. 2002a. Reconstruction of sea level pressure fields over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500. Climate Dyn. 18, 545-561.
    • Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Dietrich, D., Jones, P. D., Davies, T. D. and co-authors. 2002b. Extending North Atlantic Oscillation reconstructions back to 1500. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 20, doi:10.1006/asle.2001.0044.
    • Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M. and Wanner, H. 2004. European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends and extremes since 1500. Science 303, 1499-1503.
    • Marshall, J., Kushnir, Y., Battisti, D., Chang, P., Czaja, A. and co-authors. 2001. North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena, impacts and mechanisms. Int. J. Climatol. 21, 1863-1898.
    • Matthews, J. A. and Briffa, K. R. 2005. The 'Little Ice Age': Reevaluation of an evolving concept. Geogr. Ann. 87A, 17-36.
    • Min, S.-K., Legutke, S., Hense, A. and Kwon, W.-T. 2005a. Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G-I. Near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea levelpressure. Tellus 57A, 605-621.
    • Min, S.-K., Legutke, S., Hense, A. and Kwon, W.-T. 2005b. Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G-II. El Nin˜o Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. Tellus 57A, 622-640.
    • Moberg, A., Alexandersson, H., Bergstro¨m, H. and Jones, P. D. 2003. Were southern Swedish summer temperatures before 1860 as warm as measured? Int. J. Climatol. 23, 1495-1521.
    • Moberg, A., Tuomenvirta, H. and Nordli, Ø. 2005. Recent climatic trends. In: The Physical Geography of Fennoscandia. Oxford Regional Environments Series (ed.M Seppa¨la¨) Oxford University Press, Oxford, 113-133.
    • Osborn, T. J. and Briffa, K. R. 2006. The spatial extent of 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years. Science 311, 841-844.
    • Osborn, T.J. , Raper, S. C. B. and Briffa, K. R. 2006. Simulated climate change during the last 1000 years: comparing the ECHO-G general circulation model with the MAGICC simple climate model. Climate Dyn. 27, 185-197.
    • Pauling, A., Luterbacher, J., Casty, C. and Wanner, H. 2006. Five hundred years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation. Climate Dyn. 26, 387-405.
    • Raible, C. C., Luksch, U., Fraedrich, K. and Voss, R. 2001. North Atlantic decadal regimes in a coupled GCM simulation. Climate Dyn. 18, 321- 330.
    • Raible, C. C., Stocker, T. F., Yoshimori, M., Renold, M. and Beyerle, U. 2005. Northern hemispheric trends of pressure indices and atmospheric circulation patterns in observations, reconstructions, and coupled GCM simulations. J. Climate 18, 3968-3982.
    • Raymond, W. and Garder, A. 1991. A review of recursive and implicit filters. Mon. Wea. Rev. 119, 477-495.
    • Reid, G. C. 1991. Solar total irradiance variations and the global sea surface temperature record. J. Geophys. Res. 96 (D2), 2835-2844.
    • Rind, D., Shindell, D., Perlwitz, J. and Lerner, J. 2004. The relative importance of solar and anthropogenic forcing of climate change between the Maunder Minimum and the present. J. Climate 17, 906-929.
    • Robertson, A., Overpeck, J., Rind, D., Mosley-Thompson, E., Zielinski, G. and co-authors. 2001. Hypothesized climate forcing time series for the last 500 years. J. Geophys. Res. 106(D14), 14783-14803.
    • Robock, A. 2000. Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev. Geophys. 38, 191-219.
    • Robock, A. 2002. The climatic aftermath. Science 295, 1242-1244.
    • Robock, A. and Mao, J. 1992. Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 12, 2405-2408.
    • Robock, A. and Mao, J. 1995. The volcanic signal in surface temperature observations. J. Climate 8, 1086-1103.
    • Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Christoph, M., Clausen, M. and co-authors. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. MPI Report No. 218, Max-Planck-Institut fu¨r Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, 90 pp.
    • Siegenthaler, U., Monnin, E., Kawamura, K., Spahni, R., Schwander, J. and co-authors. 2005. Supporting evidence from the EPICA Dronning Maud Land ice core for atmospheric CO2 changes during the past millennnium. Tellus 57B, 51-57.
    • Slonosky, V. C., Jones, P. D. and Davies, T. D. 2001. Atmospheric circulation and surface temperature in Europe from the 18th century to 1995. Int. J. Climatol. 21, 63-75.
    • Stendel, M., Mogensen, I. A. and Christensen, J. H. 2006. Influence of various forcings on global climate in historical times using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Climate Dyn. 26, 1-15.
    • Stephenson, D. B., Pavan, V., Collin, M., Junge, M. M., Quadrelli, R. and Participating CMIP2 Modelling Groups. 2006. North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact in European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment. Climate Dyn. 27, 401-420.
    • Tarand, A. and Nordli, P. Ø. 2001. The Tallinn temperature series reconstructed back half a millennium by use of proxy data. Climatic Change 48, 189-199.
    • Taylor, K. E. and Penner, J. E. 1994. Response of the climate system to atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases. Nature 369, 734- 737.
    • Tett, S. F. B., Betts, R., Crowley, T. J., Gregory, J., Johns, T. C. and co-authors. 2006. The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate hydrology since 1550. Climate Dyn., published online, doi: 10.1007/s00382-006-0165-1.
    • Timmermann, A., Latif, M., Voss, R. and Gro¨tzner, A. 1998. Northern interdecadal variability: A coupled air-sea mode. J. Climate 11, 1906- 1931.
    • Tuomenvirta, H., Drebs, A., Frich, P. and Nordli, P. Ø. 2000. Trends in Nordic and Arctic temperature extremes and ranges. J. Climate 13, 977-990.
    • Visbeck, M., Chassignet, E. P., Curry, R. G., Delworth, T. L., Dickson, R. R. and co-authors. 2003. The ocean's response to North Atlantic Oscillation variability. In: The North Atlantic Oscillation. Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact (eds.J. W. Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen and M. Visbeck). Geophysical Monograph 134, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., pp. 113-145.
    • von Storch, H., Zorita, E., Jones, J. M., Dimitriev, Y., Gonza´lez-Rouco, F. and co-authors. 2004. Reconstructing past climate from noisy data. Science 306, 679-682.
    • von Storch, H., Zorita, E., Jones, J. M., Dimitriev, Y., Gonza´lez-Rouco, F. and co-authors. 2006. Response to comment on “Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data”. Science 312, doi:10.1126/science.
    • Walker, G. T. and Bliss, E. W. 1932. World Weather V. Mem. Roy. Met. Soc. 4, 53-84.
    • Wolff, J.-O., Maier-Reimer, E. and Legutke, S. 1997. The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation Model. Technical report No. 13, German Climate Computer Center (DKRZ), Hamburg, 98 pp.
    • Xoplaki, E., Luterbacher, J., Paeth, H., Dietrich, D., Steiner, N., Grosjean, M. and Wanner, H. 2005. European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half milliennium. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L15713, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023424.
    • Yoshimori, M., Stocker, T. F., Raible, C. C. and Renold, M. 2005. Externally forced and internal variability in ensemble climate simulations of the Maunder Minimum. J. Climate 18, 4253-4270.
    • Zorita, E., von Storch, H., Gonzalez-Rouco, F. J., Cubash, U., Luterbacher, J. and co-authors. 2004. Climate evolution in the last five centuries simulated by an atmosphere-ocean model: global temperatures, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Late Maunder Minimum. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 13, 271-289.
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article

Collected from