LOGIN TO YOUR ACCOUNT

Username
Password
Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:

CREATE AN ACCOUNT

Or use your Academic/Social account:

Congratulations!

You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.

Important!

Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message

CREATE AN ACCOUNT

Name:
Username:
Password:
Verify Password:
E-mail:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
CADET, DANIEL L.; DANIEL, PIERRE (2011)
Publisher: Co-Action Publishing
Journal: Tellus A
Languages: English
Types: Article
Subjects:
Ship observations along the major shipping route from Sri Lanka to Sumatra have been processed over a 23-year period from January 1954 to December 1976. Daily time series of the zonal and meridional components of the wind, pressure, cloudiness, air temperature and SST have been constructed over the southern Bay of Bengal. The zonal wind component, the pressure and the cloudiness exhibit a well-defined 30- to 50-day mode. The fluctuations of these parameters are physically consistent. The period of the low-frequency mode varies over the 23-year period, but does not show a seasonal or annual cycle. The low-frequency variations of the surface parameters can be associated with the break and active cycle of the Indian summer monsoon. The low-frequency relationship established between the surface meteorological parameters over the southern Bay of Bengal and the activity of the summer monsoon (rainfall at stations in India) is used to forecast the occurrence of the active and inactive periods. The forecast is based on the fitting of an auto-regressive moving average process over a 4-month period of the time series to extrapolate it over 30, 40 or 50 days. During years when the 30- to 50-day mode is well-defined, high-quality forecasts can be obtained. The forecasts fail during years when the phase of the low-frequency mode varies rapidly during spring and summer. On the average, the dates of the peak of the active/inactive monsoons can be predicted with an accuracy of about a week. This study offers new perspectives for the long-range forecast of fluctuations of the activity of the summer monsoon.DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.1988.tb00412.x
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • Alexander, G., Keshavamurty, R . N., De. U. S . . Cheppala, R., Das, S. K. and Pillai, P. V. 1978. Fluctuations of monsoon activity. Indian J . Meteorol. Hydrol. Geophys. 29, 7&87.
    • Anderson, J. R., Stevens, D . E. and Julian, P. R. 1984. Temporal variations of the tropical 40-50 day oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 112, 2431-2438.
    • Bennett, R. J. 1979. Spatial time series. Anal.p.sis. Forecasting. Control. Pion Limited, London, 674 pp.
    • Box, C;. E. and Jenkins, G . M. 1976. Time .series a n a l p e s . Forecasting and control. Holden-Day Editor, 575 pp.
    • Cadet, D . L. and Diehl, B. C. 1984. Interannual variability of surface fields over the Indian Ocean during recent decades. Mon. Weu. Rec. 112. 1921 ~ 1935.
    • Cadet, D. L. 1986. Fluctuations of precipitable water over the Indian Ocean during the 1979 summer monsoon. Tellus 3 8 A . 170-177.
    • Delleur. J . W. and Kavvas, M. L. 1978. Stochastic models from monthly rainfall forecasting and synthetic generation. J . Appl. Meteorol. 17, 1528- 1536.
    • Fieux, M. and Stommel, H. 1977. Onset of the southwest monsoon over the Arabian Sea from marine reports of surface winds: structure and variability. Mon. Wea. Rev. 105, 231-236.
    • Katz, R. W. and Skaggs, R. H . 1981. O n the use of autoregressive-moving average processes to model meteorological time series. Mon. W e a . Rei,. 109, 479- 484.
    • Knutson, T. R.,Weickmann, K . M. and Kutzhach. J. E. 1986. Global-scale intraseasonal oscillations of outgoing long wave radiation and 250 mb zonal wind during northern hemisphere summer. Mon. Wea. Rea. 114, 605423.
    • Krishnamurti, T . N. and Bhalme, H . N. 1976. Oscillations of a monsoon system. Part I : observational aspects. J . A m o s . Sci. 33, 1937-1954.
    • Krishnamurti, T. N and Ardanuy. P. 1980. The 10 to 20 day westward propagating mode and "breaks in the monsoons". Tdlus 32, I 5 26.
    • Krishnamurti. T . N . and Subrahmanyam, D. 1982. The 30-50 day mode at 850 mh during MONEX. J . Atmos. Sci. 39, 2088-2095.
    • Krishnamurti. T . N., Jayakumar, P. K., Sheng, J., Surgi, N . and Kumar, A. 1985. Divergent circulations on the 30 to 50 day time scale. J . Atmos. Sci. 42. 364-375.
    • Krishnamurti, T. N . and Gadgil, S. 1985. On the structure of the 30 to 50 day mode over the globe during F G G E . Tellus 3 7 A , 336-360.
    • Kung, E. C. and Sharif, T. A. 1980. Regression forecasting of the onset of the Indian summer monsoon with antecedent upper air conditions. J. Appl. Mereorol. 19. 370- 380.
    • Kung, E. C. and Sharif, T. A. 1982. Long-range forecasting of the Indian summer monsoon onset and rainfall with upper air parameters and sea surface temperature. J . Meteorol. Sor. Japan 60, 272--281.
    • Lau, K.-M. and Chan. P. H . 1986. Aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation. Mon. Wea. Rer. 114, 1354- 1367.
    • Madden, R. A. and Julian, P. R. 1971. Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Srr. 28, 702-708.
    • Madden, R. A. and Julian. P. R. 1972. Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40- 50 day period. J . A m o s . Sci. 29, 1109-1 123.
    • Murakami, M. 1976. Analysis of summer monsoon fluctuations over India. J . Meteorol. Soc. Japan 54, 15-31.
    • Murakami. M. 1979. Large-scale aspects of deep convective activity over the G A T E area. Mon. Wea. Rev. 107, 994-1013.
    • Murakami. M. 1984. Analysis of deep convective activity over the western Pacific and southeast Asia. Part 11: seasonal and intraseasonal variations during northern summer. J. Mrtrorol. Soc. Japan 6 2 , 88- 108.
    • Murakami. T.. Nakazawa, T. and He, J . 1984. On the 40-50 day oscillation during the 1979 northern hemisphere summer. Part I : phase propagation. J . Meteorol. Soc. Japan 62, 440468.
    • Murakami. T. and Nakazawa, T. 1985. Tropical 45 day oscillations during the 1979 northern hemisphere summer. J. Atmos. Sci. 42, 1107-1122.
    • Murakami. T.. Chen. L.-X.. Xie, A. and Shrestha. M . L. 1986a. Eastward propagation of 3&60 day perturbations as revealed from outgoing longwave radiation date. J. Atrncis. Sci. 43, 961 -971.
    • Murakami, T., Chen, L.-X. and Xie, A. 1986b. Relationship among seasonal cycles, low-frequency oscillations and transient disturbances as revealed from outgoing longwave radiation data. Mon. Wra. Rev. 114. 14% 1465.
    • Nakazawa. T. 1986. lntraseasonal variations of OLR in the tropics during the F G G E year. J . Mrteorol. Soc. Japan 64, 17-34,
    • Sikka, D. R. and Gadgil, S. 1980. On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ over Indian longitudes during the southwest monsoon. Man. Wea. Reo. 108. 1840- 1853.
    • Singh, S. V. and Kripalani, R . H. 1985. The south to north progression of rainfall anomalies across India during the summer monsoon season. PAGEOPH 123, 624-637.
    • Singh, S. V . and Kripalani, R.H . 1986. Application of extended empirical orthogonal function analysis to interrelationships and sequential evolution of monwon fields. Mon. Wea. Rev. 114, 1603-1610.
    • Yasunari, T. 1979. Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the northern hemisphere summer monsoon. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 57, 227-242.
    • Yasunari. T. 1980. A quasi-stationary appearance of 30 to 40 day period in the cloudiness fluctuations during the summer monsoon over India. J . Meteorol. Soc. Japan 58. 225-229.
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article

Collected from