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Gringorten, Irving I. (2011)
Publisher: Co-Action Publishing
Journal: Tellus A
Languages: English
Types: Article
A meteorological element, such as the surface air temperature, averaged over a given time interval, can serve as a measure of the persistence or duration of the condition over that time interval. To study the probability distribution of moving time averages involving both common and extreme averages, it was found necessary to use a Monte Carlo simulation technique. A simple Markov process generating a sequence of values of a normally distributed variate, characterized by a constant hour-to-hour correlation, has worked fortuitously well as a model of duration on the selected examples, for the number of hours ranging from one to 768. Charts have been prepared to give the probability distribution of the highest m-hour average in n hours, where n is equal to the number of hours in one day, 8 days or 32 days, and m is equal to 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96, 192, 384 or 768 hours. The hour-to-hour correlation, in this study, ranges from zero to 0.999, with the usual value approximately 0.95.DOI: 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1968.tb00387.x
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

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    • Brooks, C. E. P. & Carruthers, N., 1953, Handbook of Statktical Methodp in Meteorology, London. Her Majesty's Stationary Office, 412 pp.
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    • Gringorten, I. I., 1966, A stochastic model of the frequency and duration of weather events. J . Appl. Met., S, 606-624.
    • McGill University, 1960, Temperatureand wind frequency tables for North America and Greenland, Amtic Meteorology Reaearch Group, Publication in Meteorology, No. 25, 215 pp.
    • Mepax n n n~epnonoB OT onHoro no 768 YacoB.
    • paBH0 YHCJIy YaCOB B CyTKaX, 8 CyTKaX AJlA 32
    • CyTKaX U 7n. paBH0 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96, 192,
    • 384 UJIU 768 YacoB. MeHEsacoBafl Koppenflqm
    • U3MeHRJIaCb OT HynR a0 0,999, IIpUYeM 0 6 ~ ~ ~ 0
    • 3HaKqeHBe npU6JIAHEeHHO PaBHflJIOCb 0,95.
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