Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:


Or use your Academic/Social account:


You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.


Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message


Verify Password:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Sánchez Gómez, E.; Cabos Narvaés, W.; Ortiz Beviá, M. J. (2011)
Publisher: Co-Action Publishing
Journal: Tellus A
Languages: English
Types: Article
Long-range empirical forecasts of North Atlantic anomalous conditions are issued, using seaice concentration anomalies in the same region as predictors. Conditions in the North Atlanticare characterized by anomalies of sea surface temperature, of 850 hPa air temperature and ofsea level pressure. Using the Singular Value Decomposition of the cross-covariance matrixbetween the sea ice field (the predictor) and each of the predictand variables, empirical modelsare built, and forecasts at lead times from 3 to 18 months are presented. The forecasts of theair temperature anomalies score the highest levels of the skill, while forecasts of the sea levelpressure anomalies are the less sucessful ones.To investigate the sources of the forecast skill, we analyze their spatial patterns. In addition,we investigate the influence of major climatic signals on the forecast skill. In the case of the airtemperature anomalies, the spatial pattern of the skill may be connected to El Nin˜o SouthernOscillation (ENSO) influences. The ENSO signature is present in the predictor field, as shownin the composite analysis. The composite pattern indicates a higher (lower) sea ice concentrationin the Labrador Sea and the opposite situation in the Greenland–Barents Seas during the warm(cold) phase of ENSO. The forecasts issued under the El Nin˜o conditions show improved skillin the Labrador region, the Iberian Peninsula and south of Greenland for the lead timesconsidered in this paper. For the Great Lakes region the skill increases when the predictor isunder the influence of a cold phase. Some features in the spatial structure of the skill of theforecasts issued in the period of the Great Salinity Anomaly present similarities with thosefound for forecasts made during the cold phase of ENSO. The strength of the dependence onthe Great Salinity Anomaly makes it very difficult to determine the influence of the NorthAtlantic Oscillation.DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.00322.x
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • Barnett T. P., Heinz, H. D. and Hasselmann, K. 1984. Statistical prediction of seasonal air temperature over Eurasia. T ellus 36A, 132-146.
    • Bretherton C. S., Smith, C. and Wallace, J. M. 1992. An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. J. Climate 5, 541-560.
    • Chapman W. E. and Walsh, J. E. 1993. Recent variation of sea ice and air temperature in high latitudes. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 74, 33-47.
    • Curry R. E., McCartney, M. S. and Joyce, T. M. 1998. Oceanic transport of subpolar climate signals to middepths subtropical waters, Nature 391, 575-577.
    • Delworth T. L., Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J. 1997. Multidecadal climate variations in the Greenland Sea and surrounding regions: a coupled model simulation. Geophys. Res. L ett. 24, 257-260.
    • Deser C. and Blackmon, M. L. 1993. Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900-1989. J. Climate 6, 1743-1753.
    • Deser C., Walsh, J. E. and Timlin, M. S. 2000. Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric trends. J. Climate 13, 617-633.
    • Dickson R. R., Meincke, J., Malmberg, S. A. and Lee, A. J. 1988. The 'Great Salinity Anomaly' in the northern North Atlantic 1968-1982. Progr. Oceanogr. 20, 103-151.
    • Fang Z. and Wallace, J. M. 1994. Arctic sea ice variability on a timescale of weeks: its relation to atmospheric forcing. J. Climate 7, 1897-1913.
    • Frankignoul C. and Hasselmann, K. 1977. Stochastic climate models. Part 2. Application to sea surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability. T ellus 29, 289-305.
    • Gloersen P. 1995. Modulation of hemispheric sea-ice cover by ENSO events. Nature 373, 503-506.
    • Hurrell J. W. 1996. Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on the temperature variability of the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa field. Geophys. Res. L ett. 33, 665-668.
    • Johansson A., Barnston, A., Saha, A. and van der Dool, H. 1998. On the level and origin of seasonal variability forecast skill in Northern Europe. J. Atmos. Sci. 55, 103-127.
    • Kalnay, E., et al. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437-471.
    • Klein S. A., Soden, B. J. and Lau, N. C. 1999. Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J. Climate 12, 917-932.
    • Lau N. C. 1997. Interactions between global SST anomalies and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 21-33.
    • Lemke, P., Trinkl, E. W. and Hasselmann, K. 1980. Stochastic dynamic analysis of sea ice variability. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 10, 2100-2120.
    • Mysak, L. A., Manak, D. K. and Marsden, R. F. 1990. Sea ice anomalies observed in the Greenland and Labrador Seas during 1901-1984 and their relationship to an interdecadal Arctic climate cycle. Clim. Dynam. 5, 111-133.
    • Mysak L. A. and Venegas, S. 1998. Decadal climate oscillations in the Arctic: a new feedback loop for atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions. Geophys. Res. L ett. 25, 3607-3610.
    • Mysak, L. A., Ingram, R. G., Wang, J. and van der Baaren, A. 1996. The anomalous sea-ice extent in the Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and Labrador Sea during three simultaneous NAO and ENSO episodes. Atmos. Ocean 34, 313-343.
    • Navarra, A. 1993. A new set of orthonormal modes for linearized meteorological problems. J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 2569-2583.
    • Palmer, T. N. and Sun, Z. B. 1985. A modeling and observational study of the relationship of sea surface temperature in the north-western Atlantic and the atmospheric general circulation. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 111, 947-925.
    • Pickart, R. S., Spall, M. A. and Lazier, J. R. N. 1997. Mid-depth ventilation in the western boundary current system of the subpolar gyre. Deep-Sea Res. Part I 44, 1025-1037.
    • Radcliffe R. A. S. and Murray, R. 1970. New lag associations between North Atlantic sea temperature and European pressure applied to long-range weather forecasting. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 236-246.
    • Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Frich, P., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K. and Alexander, L. V. 2000. SST and sea-ice fields for ERA-40. Proceedings of the Second W CRP International Conference on Reanalysis, W CR 109 (W MO/T D-NO. 985), 18-22.
    • SanchezG o´mez, E., A´lvarez, F. and OrtizBevia´, M. J. in press. Empirical prediction of 850 hPa North Atlantic air temperature anomalies. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., accepted for publication.
    • Thompson, D. W. J. and Wallace, J. M. 1998. The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. L ett. 25, 1297-1300.
    • Trenberth, K. E. 1996. The definition of El Ni n˜o. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 2771-2777.
    • Vautard, R., Plaut, G., Wang, R. and Brunet, G. 1998. Seasonal prediction of North America surface air temperature using space-time principal components. J. Climate 10, 389-394.
    • Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. S. 1981. Teleconnections in the geoptential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev. 109, 784-812.
    • Walsh, J. E. and Johnson, C.M. 1979. Interannual atmospheric variability and associated fluctuations in Arctic sea ice extent. J. Geophys. Res. 84, 6915-6928.
  • Inferred research data

    The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    Title Trust
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article

Collected from