Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:


Or use your Academic/Social account:


You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.


Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message


Verify Password:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Bengtsson, Lennart; Hodges, Kevin I. (2006)
Publisher: Co-Action Publishing
Journal: Tellus A
Languages: English
Types: Article
Using the method of Lorenz (1982), we have estimated the predictability of a recent version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model using two different estimates of the initial error corresponding to 6- and 24-hr forecast errors, respectively. For a 6-hr forecast error of the extratropical 500-hPa geopotential height field, a potential increase in forecast skill by more than 3 d is suggested, indicating a further increase in predictability by another 1.5 d compared to the use of a 24-hr forecast error. This is due to a smaller initial error and to an initial error reduction resulting in a smaller averaged growth rate for the whole 7-d forecast. A similar assessment for the tropics using the wind vector fields at 850 and 250 hPa suggests a huge potential improvement with a 7-d forecast providing the same skill as a 1-d forecast now. A contributing factor to the increase in the estimate of predictability is the apparent slow increase of error during the early part of the forecast.
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • Bengtsson, L. K., Hodges, I. and Froude, L. S. R. 2005. Global observations and forecast skill. Tellus 57A, 515-527.
    • Charney, J. G., Fleagle, R. G., Riehl, H., Lally, V. E. and Wark, D. Q. 1966. The feasibility of a global observation and analysis experiment. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 47, 200-220.
    • Leith, C. E. 1965. Numerical simulation of the earth's atmosphere. Methods in Computational Physics Volume 4, Academic Press, New York, 1-28.
    • Lorenz, E. N. 1982. Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus 34, 505-513.
    • Mintz, Y. 1964. Very long term global integration of the primitive equations of atmospheric motion. WMO-IUGG Sympos. Res. Dev. Aspects of Long-Range Forecasting, World Meteor. Org., Tech. note No. 66, 141-155.
    • Simmons, A. J., Mureau, R. and Petroliagis, P. 1995. Error growth and estimates of predictability from the ECMWF forecasting system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 121, 1739-1772.
    • Simmons, A. and Hollingsworth, A. 2002. Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction. Q. J. R. Meteoral. Soc. 128, 647-677.
    • Smagorinsky, J. 1963. General circulation experiments with the primitive equations. I. The basic experiment. Mon. Weather. Rev. 91, 99- 164.
    • Smagorinsky, J. 1969. Problems and promises of deterministic extended range forecasting. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 50, 286- 311.
    • White, P. 2000. IFS Documentation Part III: Dynamics and Numerical Procedures (CY21R4), Meteorological Bulletin M1.6/4, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading UK.
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article

Collected from