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Polo, M. J.; Aguilar, C.; Millares, A.; Herrero, J.; Gómez-Beas, R.; Contreras, E.; Losada, M. A. (2014)
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
Languages: English
Types: Article
Subjects: GE1-350, QE1-996.5, Environmental sciences, Geology
Risk assessment for water resource planning must deal with the uncertainty associated with excess/scarcity situations and their costs. The projected actions for increasing water security usually involve an indirect "call-effect": the territory occupation/water use is increased following the achieved protection. In this work, flood and water demand in a mountainous semi-arid watershed in southern Spain are assessed by means of the stochastic simulation of extremes, when this human factor is/is not considered. The results show how not including this call-effect induced an underestimation of flood risk after protecting the floodplain of between 35 and 78 % in a 35-year planning horizon. Similarly, the pursued water availability of a new reservoir resulted in a 10-year scarcity risk increase up to 38 % when the trend of expanding the irrigated area was included in the simulations. These results highlight the need for including this interaction in the decision-making assessment.