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fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Mair, L; Hill, J K; Fox, R; Botham , M; Brereton, T; Thomas, C D
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Languages: English
Types: Article
There is little consensus as to why there is so much variation in the rates at which different species’ geographic ranges expand in response to climate warming[1,2]. Here, we show for British butterfly species that the relative importance of species’ abundance trends and habitat availability vary over time. Species with high habitat availability expanded more rapidly from the 1970s to mid-1990s, when abundances were generally stable, whereas habitat availability effects were confined to the subset of species with stable abundances from the mid-1990s to 2009, when abundance trends were generally declining. This suggests that stable (or positive) abundance trends are a prerequisite for range expansion. Given that species’ abundance trends vary over time[3] for non-climatic as well as climatic reasons, assessment of abundance trends will help improve predictions of species’ responses to climate change, and help understand the likely success of different conservation strategies for facilitating their expansions.
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    • 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mattila, N., Kaitala, V., Komonen, A., PäIvinen, J. & Kotiaho, J. S. Ecological correlates of distribution change and range shift in butterflies. Insect Conservation and Diversity 4, 239-246 (2011).
    • Angert, A. L. et al. Do species' traits predict recent shifts at expanding range edges? Ecology Letters 14, 677-689 (2011).
    • Brereton, T., Roy, D. B., Middlebrook, I., Botham, M. & Warren, M. The development of butterfly indicators in the United Kingdom and assessments in 2010.
    • Journal of Insect Conservation 15, 139-151 (2011).
    • Arribas, P. et al. Evaluating drivers of vulnerability to climate change: a guide for insect conservation strategies. Global Change Biology 18, 2135-2146 (2012).
    • Warren, M. S. et al. Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature 414, 65-69 (2001).
    • Gaston, K. J. & Blackburn, T. M. Large-scale dynamics in colonization and extinction for breeding birds in Britain. J. Anim. Ecol. 71, 390-399 (2002).
    • Hill, J. K. et al. Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B-Biol. Sci. 269, 2163-2171 (2002).
    • Newton, I. Links between the abundance and distribution of birds. Ecography 20, 137-145 (1997).
    • Chen, I. C., Hill, J. K., Ohlemüller, R., Roy, D. B. & Thomas, C. D. Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333, 1024- 1026 (2011).
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