Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:


Or use your Academic/Social account:


You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.


Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message


Verify Password:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group
Languages: English
Types: Unknown
Subjects: METHODOLOGY, Health inequalities, DEMOGRAPHY, Life course epidemiology, Epidemiology, 1117 Public Health And Health Services, GEOGRAPHY, 1604 Human Geography
Background: Scotland has higher mortality rates than the rest of Western Europe (rWE), with more cardiovascular disease and cancer among older adults; and alcohol-related and drug-related deaths, suicide and violence among younger adults.\ud \ud Methods: We obtained sex, age-specific and year-specific all-cause mortality rates for Scotland and other populations, and explored differences in mortality both visually and numerically.\ud \ud Results: Scotland's age-specific mortality was higher than the rest of the UK (rUK) since 1950, and has increased. Between the 1950s and 2000s, ‘excess deaths’ by age 80 per 100 000 population associated with living in Scotland grew from 4341 to 7203 compared with rUK, and from 4132 to 8828 compared with rWE. UK-wide mortality risk compared with rWE also increased, from 240 ‘excess deaths’ in the 1950s to 2320 in the 2000s. Cohorts born in the 1940s and 1950s throughout the UK including Scotland had lower mortality risk than comparable rWE populations, especially for males. Mortality rates were higher in Scotland than rUK and rWE among younger adults from the 1990s onwards suggesting an age–period interaction.\ud \ud Conclusions: Worsening mortality among young adults in the past 30 years reversed a relative advantage evident for those born between 1950 and 1960. Compared with rWE, Scotland and rUK have followed similar trends but Scotland has started from a worse position and had worse working age–period effects in the 1990s and 2000s.
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • 1 Rigby JE, Dorling D. Mortality in relation to sex in the affluent world. J Epidemiol Community Health 2007;61:159-64.
    • 2 McCartney G, Walsh D, Whyte B, et al. Has Scotland always been the 'sick man' of Europe? An observational study from 1855 to 2006. Eur J Public Health 2012;22:756-60.
    • 3 Leon DA. Trends in European life expectancy: a salutary view. Int J Epidemiol 2011;40:271-7.
    • 4 Whyte B, Ajetunmobi T. Still the 'sick man of Europe'? Scottish Mortality in a European Context, 1950-2010: An Analysis of comparative mortality trends. Glasgow. 2012. http://www.scotpho.org.uk/publications/reports-and-papers/937- still-the-sick-man-of-europe-scottish-mortality-in-a-european-context-1950-2010-ananalysis-of-comparative-mortality-trends 5 Eikemo T, Mackenbach JP. The potential for reducing health inequalities in Europe. EURO_GBD-SE Final Report. Rotterdam, 2012.
    • 6 Leyland A, Dundas R, McLoone P, et al. Inequalities in mortality in Scotland 1981- 2001. Glasgow. 2007.
    • 7 Cannegieter S, Leon D, Morton S, et al. Understanding the health of Scotland's Population in an International Context. London. 2003. http://www.healthscotland. com/uploads/documents/2294-UnderstandingHealthofScotlandP2.pdf 8 McCartney G, Collins C, Walsh D, et al. Accounting for Scotland's excess mortality: towards a synthesis. Glasgow. 2011. http://www.gcph.co.uk/assets/0000/1080/ GLA147851_Hypothesis_Report__2_.pdf 9 Walsh D, McCartney G, Collins C, et al. History, politics and vulnerability: explaining excess mortality in Scotland and Glasgow. Glasgow. 2016. http://www.gcph.co.uk/ assets/0000/5574/History_politics_and_vulnerability.pdf 10 Human Mortality Database. Univ. California, Berkeley (USA), Max Plank Inst. Demogr. Res. 2014. http://www.mortality.org 11 Preston S, Heuveline P, Guillot M. Demography: measuring and modeling population processes. Malden, Massachusetts: Blackwell Publishing, 2001.
    • 12 13 14 15 16 17 Wilmoth JR, Andreev K, Jdanov D, et al. Methods Protocol for the Human Mortality Database. 2007. http://www.mortality.org/Public/Docs/MethodsProtocol.pdf Lexis W. Einleitung in die Theorie der Bevölkerungsstatistik. Strassburg: Karl J Trobner, 1875. http://www.worldcat.org/title/einleitung-in-die-theorie-derbevolkerungsstatistik/oclc/27127671.
    • Arthur WB, Vaupel JW. Some general relationships in population dynamics. Popul Index 1984;50:214.
    • Keiding N. Statistical inference in the Lexis diagram. Philos Trans R Soc A Math Phys Eng Sci 1990;332:487-509.
    • Carstensen B. Age-period-cohort models for the Lexis diagram. Stat Med 2007;26:3018-45.
    • Clayton D, Schifflers E. Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. II: Ageperiod-cohort models. Stat Med 1987;6:469-81.
    • Wilmoth JR. Age-period-cohort models in demography. In: Caselli G, Vallin J, Wunsch G, eds. Demography: analysis and synthesis. Burlington, MA: Academic Press, 2006.
    • Camarda CG. MortalitySmooth: an R package for smoothing Poisson counts with P-Splines. J Stat Softw 2012;50:1.
    • J Stat Softw 2005;12:6.
    • Sarkar D. Lattice: multivariate data visualization with R. New York: Springer, 2008.
    • Ben-Shlomo Y. A life course approach to chronic disease epidemiology: conceptual models, empirical challenges and interdisciplinary perspectives. Int J Epidemiol 2002;31:285-93.
    • Parkinson J, Minton J, Lewsey J, et al. Recent cohort effects in suicide in Scotland: a legacy of the 1980s? J Epidemiol Community Health 2016; ▪▪▪.
    • Harper S. Invited commentary: A-P-C it's easy as 1-2-3!: figure 1. Am J Epidemiol 2015;182:313-17.
    • Caselli G, Vallin J. From situation events in time to the Lexis diagram and the computing of rates. In: Caselli G, Vallin J, Wunsch G, eds. Demography: analysis and synthesis2. Boston, MA: Academic Press, 2005.
    • Dokumentov A, Hyndman RJ. Two-dimensional smoothing of mortality rates. 2013.
    • http://www.robjhyndman.com/papers/bivariate-mortality-smoothing.pdf (accessed 30 Dec 2016) Willets R. The Cohort Effect: insights and explanations. British Actuarial Journal 2004;10:833-77.
    • Goldring S, Henretty N, Mills J, et al. Mortality of the 'Golden Generation': what can the ONS longitudinal study tell us? Popul Trends 2011;145:199-228.
    • McCartney G, Collins C, Walsh D, et al. Explaining Scotland's mortality: towards a synthesis. Public Health 2012;126:459-70.
    • Campbell M, Ballas D, Dorling D, et al. Mortality inequalities: Scotland versus England and Wales. Health Place 2013;23:179-86.
    • Minton J, Vanderbloemen L, Dorling D. Visualizing Europe's demographic scars with coplots and contour plots. Int J Epidemiol 2013;42:1164-76.
    • Mazumder B, Almond D, Park K, et al. Lingering prenatal effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic on cardiovascular disease. J Dev Orig Health Dis 2010;1:26-34.
    • Almond D. Is the 1918 influenza pandemic over? Long-term effects of in utero influenza exposure in the post-1940 U.S. population. J Polit Econ 2006;114:672-712.
    • Mackenbach JP. Convergence and divergence of life expectancy in Europe: a centennial view. Eur J Epidemiol 2013;28:229-40.
    • SSM Popul Health 2016;2:724-31.
    • Norman P, Boyle P, Exeter D, et al. Rising premature mortality in the UK's persistently deprived areas: only a Scottish phenomenon? Soc Sci Med 2011;73:1575-84.
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article