Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:


Or use your Academic/Social account:


You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.


Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message


Verify Password:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Towill, Denis Royston; Disney, Stephen Michael (2008)
Publisher: Inderscience Publishers
Languages: English
Types: Article
Subjects: HD28, HD, HF
We discuss the exploitation of a well-established replenishment rule, the order-up-to policy, to control the supply chain risk resulting from the Bullwhip effect. To avoid this risk within supply chains, two specific recommendations are highly important. First, we provide strong evidence that availability of high fidelity up-to-date delivery lead-time information is essential. This inevitably requires transparency and trust between various 'players' within the supply chain. For many practical reasons this is easier to recommend than to actually achieve. Secondly, such reliable data needs to be automatically fed into the replenishment system to enable it to function in an adaptive mode. This step offers a reasonable guarantee of a well-controlled performance. It is also advisable that at the design stage, replenishment rule parameters should be set so that 'conservative' operation is achieved. The new theoretical advances described in the paper are validated via simulation models of the delivery process.
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • Belk, K. and Steels, W., (1998) “Case study ATS Berk: From arbitration to agility”, Logistics Information Management, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 128-133.
    • Bonney, M.C., (1990) “A Possible Framework for CAPM”, Working Paper, SERC ACME Directorate CAPM Seminar, Castle Donnington, UK.
    • Burbidge, J.L., (1984) “Automated production control with a simulation capability”, Proceedings IFIP Conference, WG 5-7, Copenhagen, pp. 1-14.
    • Chandler, A.D., (1990) “Scale and Scope”, Belknap Press, Cambridge, MA.
    • Cheema, P., Coleman, J.L., Bishop, B. and Edgehill, J.S., (1989) “A combined feedforward/ feedback “To-Make” model for a multi-product machine shop”, Proceedings 5th Conference on Production Research, Huddersfield Polytechnic, pp. 101-105.
    • Christensen, J.L. and Brogan, W.L. (1971), “Modelling and Optimal Control of a Production Process”, Int. J. System Science, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 247-255.
    • Christopher, M., and Lee, M., (2004) “Mitigating supply chain risk through improved confidence”, International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, Vol. 34, No. 5, pp. 338-396.
    • Coyle, R.G., (1977) “Management system dynamics”, John Wiley and Sons Inc., Chichester.
    • Davenport, T.H. (2006) “Competing on analytics”, Harvard Business Review, January, pp. 99-107.
    • Deziel, D.P. and Eilon, S., (1967) “A linear production - inventory control rule”, The Production Engineer, 43, pp. 93-104.
    • Disney, S.M. and Towill, D.R., (2003) “On the bullwhip and inventory variance produced by an ordering policy”, OMEGA: The International Journal of Management Science, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 157-167.
    • Disney, S.M. and Towill, D.R., (2005) “Eliminating inventory drift in supply chains”, International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 93-94, pp. 331-344.
    • Disney, S.M. and Towill, D.R., (2006a) “A methodology for benchmarking replenishment induced bullwhip”, Supply Chain Management, an International Journal, Vol. 11. No. 2, pp. 160-168.
    • Disney, S.M., (2007) “Supply chain aperiodicity, bullwhip and stability analysis with Jury's Inners”, Forthcoming in the IMA Journal of Management Mathematics.
    • Disney, S.M., Chen, Y.F., van de Velde, W., Warburton, R., Gaalman, G., Lambrecht, M. and Towill, D.R., (2006b), “Economics of the bullwhip effect”, Annual INFORMS International Conference, June 25-28, Hong Kong.
    • Fisher, M., (2005) “The prophet of unintended consequences: Jay Forrester's computer models show the nonlinear roots of calamity and reveal the leverage that can help us avoid it” Journal of Strategy and Business, Issue 40, Fall, pp. 79-89.
    • Fisher, M., Hammond, J., Obermeyer, W. and Raman, A., (1997) “Configuring a supply chain to reduce the cost of demand uncertainty”, Production and Operations Management, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 211-225.
    • Forrester, J., (1958) “Industrial dynamics: A major breakthrough for decisionmakers”, Harvard Business Review, Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 37-66.
    • Geary, S., Disney, S.M. and Towill, D.R., (2006) “On bullwhip in supply chains: Historical review, present practice and expected future impact”, International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 101, pp. 2-18.
    • Gladwell, M., (2000) “The tipping point”, Abacus Books, London.
    • Goldman, S.L., Nagel, R.N. and Preiss, K., (1995), “Agile competitors and virtual organisations”, Van Nostrand Reinhold, NY.
    • Holmström, J., (1997) “Product range management: A case study of supply chain operations in the European grocery industry”, Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 107-115.
    • Holzner, S. (2006) “How Dell does IT: Using speed and innovation to achieve extraordinary results”, F.T. Prentice Hall, New York.
    • John, S., Naim, M. and Towill, D.R., (1994) "Dynamic analysis of a WIP compensated decision support system", International Journal of Manufacturing System Design, Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 283-297.
    • Jones, D.T., Hines, P. and Rich, N., (1997) “Lean logistics”, International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, Vol. 21, No. 3/4, pp. 1-24.
    • Jury, E.I., (1974) “Inners and the stability of dynamic systems, John Wiley and Sons, New York.
    • Lee, H.L., Padmanabhan, V., and Whang, S., (1997) “The bullwhip effect in a supply chain”, Sloan Management Review, Spring, pp. 93-102.
    • Lowson, Robert (2001) “Analysing the effectiveness of European retail sourcing strategies”, European Management Journal, Vol. 19, No. 5, pp. 543-551.
    • Mansell, I., (2002) “Retailers feel heat: Next spooks investors”, The Times, Business Section, 3rd October 2002.
    • Metters, R., (1997) “Quantifying the bullwhip effect in supply chains”, Journal of Operations Management, Vol. 15, pp. 89-100.
    • Mitchell, T., (1923) “Competitive illusion as a cause of business cycles”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 38, pp. 631-652.
    • Mollick, A.V., (2004) “Production smoothing in the Japanese vehicle industry”, International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 91, pp. 63-74.
    • Naim, M.M., Childerhouse, P.C., Disney, S.M., and Towill, D.R., (2002), “A supply chain diagnostic methodology: determining the vector of change”, Computers and Industrial Engineering: An International Journal, Vol. 43, No. 1-2, pp135- 157.
    • Nishiguchi, T. and Beaudet, A., (1999) “Fractal design: Self-organising links in supply chain management”, in Knowledge Creation - a Source of Value, von Krogh, G., Nonanka, I. and Nishiguchi, T. (Eds), St Martins Press, New York.
    • Papadakis, I.S. (2003) “On the sensitivity of configure-to-order supply chains for personal computers after component market disruptions”, International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, Vol. 33, No. 10, pp. 934- 950.
    • Popplewell, K. and Bonney, M.C., (1987) “The application of discrete linear control theory to the analysis of multi-product, multi-level production control systems”, International Journal of Production Research, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 45-56.
    • Roberts, E.B., (1981) “Systems analysis of workload fluctuations: A case study of the precision company” in Roberts, EB (ed) “Managerial Applications of Systems Dynamics”, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.
    • Stalk, Jnr. G.H. and Hout, T.M., (1990), “Competing against time: How time based competition is reshaping global markets”, Free Press, New York.
    • Sterman, J., (1989) “Modelling managerial behaviour: Misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision-making experiment”, Management Science, Vol. 35, No. 3, pp. 321-339.
    • Sterman, J., (2000) “Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modelling for a complex world”, McGraw-Hill, Boston, MA.
    • Towill, D.R., (1997) “The seamless supply chain - The predator's strategic advantage”, International Journal of Technology Management, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 37-56.
    • Towill, D.R. Evans, G.N. and Cheema, P., (1997) “Analysis and design of an adaptive minimum reasonable inventory control system”, International Journal of Production Planning and Control, Vol. 8, No. 6, pp. 545-557.
    • Towill, D.R., (1970) “Transfer function techniques for control engineers”, Illiffe Books, London.
    • van Ackere, A., Larsen, E.R. and Morecroft, J.D.W., (1993) "Systems thinking and business process redesign: An application to the beer game", European Management Journal, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 412-423.
    • Watson, G.H., (1994) “Business systems engineering: Managing breakthrough changes for productivity and profit”, John Wiley and Sons, Inc. NY.
    • Wikner, J., Towill, D.R., and Naim, M.M., (1991) “Smoothing supply chain dynamics”, International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 22, pp. 231- 248.
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article