Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:


Or use your Academic/Social account:


You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.


Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message


Verify Password:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Keskin, B.; Dunning, R.; Watkins, C. (2017)
Publisher: Emerald
Languages: English
Types: Article
\ud Purpose – This paper seeks to look at the impact of recent earthquake activity on house prices and their spatial distribution in the Istanbul housing market.\ud \ud Design/Methodology/Approach – The paper employs a multi-level approach within an event study framework to model changes in the pattern of house prices in Istanbul. The model allows us to isolate the effects of earthquake risk and explore the differential impact in different submarkets in two study periods - one before (2007) and one after (2012) recent earthquake activity in the Van region, which although in Eastern Turkey, served to alter the perceptions of risk through the wider geographic region.\ud \ud Findings – The analysis shows that their are variations in the size of price discounts in submarkets resulting from the differential influence of recent earthquake activity on perceived risk of damage. The model results show that the spatial impacts of these changes are not transmitted evenly across the study area. Rather it is clear that submarkets at the cheaper end of the market have proportionately larger negative impacts on real estate values. \ud \ud Practical implications – The methods introduced in this study can be used by real estate agents, valuers, and insurance companies to help them more accurately assess the likely impacts of changes in the perceived risk of earthquake activity (or other environmental events such as flooding) on the formation of house prices in different market segments.\ud \ud Originality/value – The paper represents an attempt to develop a novel extension of the standard use of hedonic models in event studies to investigate the impact of natural disasters on real estate values. The value of the approach is that it is able to better capture the granularity of the spatial effects of environmental events than the standard approach.
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • Adair, A., Berry, J. and McGreal, W.S. (1996), “Hedonic modelling, housing submarkets and residential valuation”, Journal of Property Research, Vol. 16 No. 1, pp. 67-83.
    • Alkay, E. (2008), “Housing submarkets in Istanbul”, International Real Estate Review, Vol. 11 No. 1, pp. 113-127.
    • Alkay, E. (2011), “The residential mobility pattern in the Istanbul Metropolitan Area”, Housing Studies, Vol. 26 No. 4, pp. 521-539.
    • Alkay, E., Keskin, B. and Watkins, C. (2015), “Explaining spatial variation in housing construction activity in Turkey”, paper presented at the European Real Estate Society Conference, Istanbul, July.
    • Beron, K.J., Murdoch, J.C., Thayer, M.A. and Vijverberg, W.P.M. (1997), “An analysis of the housing market before and after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake”, Land Economics, Vol. 73 No. 1, pp. 101-113.
    • Bibbee, A., Gonenc, R., Jacobs, S., Konvitz, J. and Price, R.W.R. (2000), “The economic effects of the 1999 Turkish earthquakes: an interim report”, OECD Economics Working Papers.
    • Bin, O., Brown Kruse, J. and Landry, C.E. (2008), “Flood hazards, insurance rates, and amenities: evidence from the coastal housing market”, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 75 No. 1, pp. 63-82.
    • Blalock, H.M. (1984), “Contextual-effects models: theoretical and methodological issues”, Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 10, pp. 353-372.
    • Boyle, M. and Kiel, K. (2001), “A survey of hedonic studies of the impact of environmental externalities”, Journal of Real Estate Literature, Vol. 9, pp. 117-144.
    • Building Census (2000), Building Census, State Institute of Statistics, Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey, Ankara, available at: www.tuik.gov.tr/IcerikGetir.do?istab_id 64 (accessed 17th December 2014).
    • Case, B., Colwell, P., Leishman, C. and Watkins, C. (2006), “The impact of environmental contamination on condo prices: a hybrid repeat-sale/hedonic approach”, Real Estate Economics, Vol. 34 No. 1, pp. 77-107.
    • Clapp, J.M. (2003), “A semiparametric method for valuing residential locations: application to automated valuation”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 27 No. 3, pp. 303-320.
    • Coskun, Y. (2011), “The global financial crisis and the Turkish housing market”, Housing Finance International, Vol. 25 No. 3, pp. 6-14.
    • Des Rosiers, F. and Theriault, M. (2008), “Mass appraisal, hedonic price modelling and Urban externalities: understanding property value shaping processes”, in Kauko, T. and d'Amato, M. (Eds), Mass Appraisal Methods, An International Perspective for Property Valuers, RICS Research, Wiley-Blackwell, Hoboken.
    • Feng, Y. and Jones, K. (2016), “Comparing two neighbourhood classifications: a multilevel analysis of London property price 2011-2014”, paper presented at the Pacific Rim Real Estate Conference, Queensland, January.
    • Fik, T., Ling, D. and Mulligan, G. (2003), “Modeling spatial variation in housing prices: a variable interactions approach”, Real Estate Economics, Vol. 31 No. 4, pp. 623-646.
    • Fletcher, M., Gallimore, P. and Mangan, J. (2000), “The modelling of housing submarkets”, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, Vol. 18 No. 4, pp. 473-487.
    • Gokmen, G.P., Yuksel, D.Y., Erkok, F., Alkiser, Y. and Keskin, B. (2006), “Evaluating and reducing earthquake risks of squatter settlements in Istanbul”, Open House International, Vol. 31 No. 1, pp. 116-124.
    • Goodman, A. and Thibodeau, T. (2003), “Housing market segmentation and hedonic prediction accuracy”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol. 12 No. 3, pp. 181-201.
    • Gorard, S. (2003), “What is multi- level modelling for?”, British Journal of Educational Studies, Vol. 51 No. 1, pp. 46-63.
    • Grigsby, W. (1963), Housing Markets and Public Policy, University of Pennsylvania Press, Pennsylvania.
    • Hallstrom, D.G. and Smith, K. (2005), “Market response to hurricanes”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol. 50 No. 3, pp. 541-561.
    • JICA (2002), A Disaster Prevention/Mitigation Plan for Istanbul, Report to Istanbul Municipal Authority, Istanbul, available at: www.ibb.gov.tr/tr-TR/SubSites/DepremSite/Publishing Images/JICA_ENG.pdf (accessed 20th July 2014).
    • Jones, K. and Bullen, N. (1993), “A multilevel analysis of the variations in domestic property prices - Southern England, 1980-1987”, Urban Studies, Vol. 30 No. 8, pp. 1409-1426.
    • Keskin, B. (2010), “Alternative approaches to modelling housing market segmentation: evidence from Istanbul”, Unpublished PhD Thesis, University of Sheffield, Sheffield.
    • Keskin, B. and Watkins, C. (2014), The Impact of Earthquake Risk on Property Values, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, London.
    • Keskin, B. and Watkins, C. (2016), “Defining spatial housing markets: exploring the case for expert delineated boundaries”, Urban Studies, online first, January, pp. 1-17.
    • Lamond, J., Proverbs, D. and Hammond, F. (2010), “The impact of flooding on the price of residential property: a transactional analysis of the UK market”, Housing Studies, Vol. 25 No. 3, pp. 335-356.
    • Leishman, C. (2009), “Spatial change and the structure of urban housing sub-markets”, Housing Studies, Vol. 24 No. 5, pp. 563-585.
    • Leishman, C., Costello, G., Rowley, S. and Watkins, C. (2013), “The predictive performance of multi-level models of housing submarkets: a comparative analysis”, Urban Studies, Vol. 50 No. 6, pp. 1201-1230.
    • Loomis, J. (2004), “Do nearby forest fires cause a reduction in residential property values?”, Journal of Forest Economics, Vol. 10 No. 3, pp. 149-197.
    • MacDonald, D.N., Murdoch, J.C. and White, H.L. (1987), “Uncertain hazards, insurance, and consumer choice: evidence from housing markets”, Land Economics, Vol. 63 No. 4, pp. 361-371.
    • Maclennan, D. and Tu, Y. (1996), “Economic perspectives on the structure of local housing markets”, Housing Studies, Vol. 11 No. 3, pp. 387-406.
    • Malpezzi, S. (2003), “Hedonic pricing models: a selective and applied review”, in O'Sullivan, T. and Gibb, K. (Eds), Housing Economics and Public Policy, Blackwells, Oxford.
    • Mueller, J., Loomis, J. and Gonzalez-Caban, A. (2009), “Do repeated wildfires change homebuyers' demand for homes in high-risk areas? A hedonic analysis of the short and long-term effects of repeated wildfires on house prices in Southern California”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 38 No. 2, pp. 155-172.
    • Nakagawa, M., Saito, M. and Yamaga, H. (2007), “Earthquake risks and housing rents: evidence from the Tokyo Metropolitan Area”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 37 No. 1, pp. 87-99.
    • Naoi, M., Seko, M. and Sumita, K. (2009), “Earthquake risk and housing prices in Japan: evidence before and after massive earthquakes”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 39 No. 6, pp. 658-669.
    • Onder, Z., Dokmeci, V. and B. Keskin (2004), “The impact of public perception of earthquake risk on Istanbul's housing market”, Journal of Real Estate Literature, Vol. 12 No. 2, pp. 181-194.
    • Orford, S. (1999), Valuing the Built Environment: GIS and House Price Analysis, Ashgate, Aldershot.
    • Palm, R. (1981), “Public response to earthquake hazard information”, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 71 No. 3, pp. 389-399.
    • Pavlov, A.D. (2000), “Space-varying regression coefficients: a semi-parametric approach applied to real estate markets”, Real Estate Economics, Vol. 28 No. 2, pp. 249-283.
    • Pryce, G. (2013), “Housing submarkets and the lattice of substitution”, Urban Studies, Vol. 50 No. 13, pp. 2682-2699.
    • Ridker, R.G. and Henning, J.A. (1968), “The determination of residential property value with special reference to air pollution”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 49, pp. 246-257.
    • Simmons, K.M., Kruse, J.B. and Smith, D.A. (2002), “Valuing mitigation: real estate response to hurricane loss reduction measures”, Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 68 No. 3, pp. 660-671.
    • Stetler, K.M., Venn, T.J. and Calkin, D.E. (2010), “The effects of wildfire and environmental amenities on property values in northwest Montana, USA”, Ecological Economics, Vol. 69 No. 11, pp. 2233-2243.
    • Subramanian, S.V. (2010), “Multilevel modelling”, in Fischer, M.M. and Getis, A. (Eds), Handbook of Spatial Analysis: Software, Tools, Methods and Applications, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
    • Tu, Y. (2003), “Segmentation, adjustment and disequilibrium”, in O'Sullivan, T. and Gibb, K. (Eds), Housing Economics and Public Policy, Blackwells, Oxford.
    • Watkins, C. (1999), “Property valuation and the structure of urban housing markets”, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, Vol. 17 No. 2, pp. 157-175.
    • Watkins, C.A. (2001), “The definition and identification of housing submarkets”, Planning A, Vol. 33 No. 12, pp. 2235-2253.
    • Watkins, C. (2012), “Housing submarkets”, in Smith, S. (Eds), International Encyclopeadia of Housing and Home, Elsevier, North-Holland.
    • Wenzel, F., Daniell, B., Khaza, T., Kunz-Plapp, T. and Daniell, J.E. (2012), “The CEDIM forensic earthquake analysis group and the test case of the 2011 van earthquakes”, 15th WCEE Meeting, Lisbon.
    • Willis, K.G. and Asgary, A. (1997), “The impact of earthquake risk on housing markets: evidence from Tehran real estate agents”, Journal of Housing Research, Vol. 8 No. 1, pp. 125-136.
    • Kauko, T. and d'Amato, M. (2011), “Neighbourhood effects in international encyclopedia of housing and home”, in Smith, S.J., Elsinga, M., Eng, O.S., Watcher, S. and O'Mahoney, L.F. (Eds), Elsevier Publisher, Cambridge.
    • Schnare, A. and Struyk, R. (1976), “Segmentation in urban housing markets”, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 3, pp. 146-166.
    • Straszheim, M. (1975), An Econometric Analysis of the Urban Housing Market, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, NY.
    • Venn, T.J. and Calkin, D.E. (2011), “Accommodating non-market values in evaluation of wildfire management in the United States: challenges and opportunities”, International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 20, pp. 327-339.
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article