LOGIN TO YOUR ACCOUNT

Username
Password
Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:

CREATE AN ACCOUNT

Or use your Academic/Social account:

Congratulations!

You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.

Important!

Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message

CREATE AN ACCOUNT

Name:
Username:
Password:
Verify Password:
E-mail:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Crafts, N. F. R.; Mills , Terence C. (2012)
Publisher: Department of Economics, University of Warwick
Languages: English
Types: Book
Subjects: HC, DA
We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series \ud econometrics, and ‘defense news’. We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the \ud range 0.5 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a Keynesian solution to \ud recession was much lower than is generally supposed. We do find that rearmament gave a \ud substantial boost to real GDP after 1935 but this was because the private sector responded to news \ud of massive future defense spending and does not imply that the multiplier effect of temporary public \ud works programs would have been large. \ud
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • Auerbach, Alan J. and Yuriy Gorodnichenko. “Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion.” NBER Working Paper No. 17447, 2011.
    • Barna, Tibor. Redistribution of Incomes through Public Finance in 1937. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1945.
    • Barro, Robert J. and Charles J. Redlick. “Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 126, no. 1 (2011): 51-102.
    • Blanchard, Olivier and Roberto Perotti. “An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, no. 4 (2002): 1329-68.
    • Bowden, Sue, David Higgins, and Chris Price. “A Very Peculiar Practice: Underemployment in Britain during the Interwar Years.” European Review of Economic History 10, no. 1 (2006): 89-108.
    • British Parliamentary Papers. Memorandum by the Chancellor of the Exchequer on the Future Exchequer Balance Sheet. Cmd. 376, 1919.
    • British Parliamentary Papers. General Annual Report on the British Army for the Year Ending 30th September, 1920. Cmd. 1610, 1922.
    • British Parliamentary Papers. General Annual Report on the British Army for the Year Ending 30th September, 1921. Cmd. 1941, 1923.
    • British Parliamentary Papers. Statement Relating to Defence. Cmd. 4827, 1935.
    • British Parliamentary Papers. Statement Relating to Defence. Cmd. 5374, 1937.
    • Broadberry, Stephen N. The British economy between the Wars: a Macroeconomic Survey. Oxford: Basil Blackwell Ltd., 1986.
    • Broadberry, Stephen N. “Perspectives on Consumption in Interwar Britain.” Applied Economics 20, no. 11 (1988): 1465-1479.
    • Capie, Forrest H. and Michael Collins. The Interwar British Economy: a Statistical Abstract. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1983.
    • Capie, Forrest and Webber, Alan. A Monetary History of the United Kingdom, 1870-1982, vol. 1. London: George Allen and Unwin, 1985.
    • Chadha, Jagjit S. and Nicholas H. Dimsdale. “A Long View of Real Rates.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 15, no.2 (1999): 17-45.
    • Chambers, David. “Going Public in Interwar Britain”, Financial History Review 17, no. 1 (2010): 51- 71.
    • Christiano, Lawrence J., Martin Eichelbaum and Sergio Rebelo. “When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?” Journal of Political Economy 119, no.1 (2011): 78-121.
    • Crafts, Nicholas. “UK Defence News, 1920-1938: Estimates based on Contemporary Sources.” University of Warwick CAGE Working Paper no.
    • Dimsdale, Nicholas H. and Nicholas Horsewood. “Fiscal Policy and Employment in Interwar Britain: Some Evidence from a New Model.” Oxford Economic Papers 47, no. 3 (1995): 369-396.
    • Feinstein, Charles H. National Income, Expenditure and Output of the United Kingdom, 1855-1965. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1972.
    • Ferris, John R. Men, Money, and Diplomacy: the Evolution of British Strategic Policy, 1919-26. Ithaca, NY.: Cornell University Press, 1989.
    • Hatton, Timothy J. “The Outlines of a Keynesian Solution.” In The Road to Full Employment, edited by Sean Glynn and Alan Booth, 82-94. London: Allen & Unwin, 1987.
    • Hebous, Shafik. “The Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy on Macroeconomic Aggregates: a Reappraisal.” Journal of Economic Surveys 25, no. 4 (2011): 674-707.
    • Hornby, William. Factories and Plant. London: HMSO, 1958.
    • Howson, Susan. Domestic Monetary Management in Britain, 1919-1938. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    • Howson, Susan. Sterling's Managed Float: the Operations of the Exchange Equalisation Account, 1932-1939. Princeton, NJ.: Princeton University Press.
    • Kahn, Richard F. “The Relation of Home Investment to Unemployment.” Economic Journal 41, no. 2 (1931): 1173-198.
    • Keynes, J. Maynard. The Means to Prosperity. London: Macmillan, 1933.
    • Keynes, J. Maynard and Hubert D. Henderson. Can Lloyd George Do It? The Pledge Re-examined. London: The Nation and Athenaeum, 1929.
    • Liberal Party. We Can Conquer Unemployment. London: Cassell, 1929.
    • Mallet, Bernard and C. Oswald George. British Budgets, 1913-14 to 1920-21. London: Macmillan, 1929.
    • Mallet, Bernard and C. Oswald George. British Budgets, 1921-22 to 1932-33. London: Macmillan, 1933.
    • Middleton, Roger. Towards the Managed Economy. London: Methuen, 1985.
    • Middleton, Roger. Government versus the Market. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 1996.
    • Middleton, Roger. “British Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the 1930s.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 26, no. 3 (2010): 414-441.
    • Mills, Terence C. “Are Fluctuations in UK Output Permanent or Transitory.” Manchester School 59, no.1 (1991): 1-11.
    • Mitchell, James, Solomos Solomou, and Martin Weale. “Monthly GDP Estimates for Interwar Britain.” Cambridge Working Paper in Economics no. 1155 (2011).
    • Peden, George C. British Rearmament and the Treasury: 1932-1939. Edinburgh: Scottish Academic Press, 1979.
    • Perotti, Roberto. “Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 111, no. 4 (1999): 1399-1446.
    • Ramey, Valerie A. “Defense News Shocks, 1939-2008: an Analysis Based on News Sources,” 2009.http://econ.usd.edu/῀vramey/research/Defense_News_Narrative.pdf
    • Ramey, Valerie A. “Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 126, no. 1 (2011): 1-50.
    • Ramey, Valerie A. “Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?” Journal of Economic Literature 49, no. 3 (2011): 673-685.
    • Robertson, A.J. “British Rearmament and Industrial Growth, 1935-1939.” Research in Economic History 8 (1983): 279-298.
    • Rohn, Oliver. “New Evidence on the Private Saving Offset and Ricardian Equivalence.” OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 762, 2010.
    • Sabine, Basil E.V. British Budgets in Peace and War, 1932-1945. London: George Allen and Unwin, 1970.
    • Thomas, Mark. “Rearmament and Economic Recovery in the late 1930s.” Economic History Review 36, no. 4 (1983): 552-579.
    • Thomas, T.J. “Aggregate Demand in the United Kingdom, 1918-1945.” In The Economic History of Britain since 1700, vol. 2, edited by Roderick Floud and Donald McCloskey, 332-346. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article