LOGIN TO YOUR ACCOUNT

Username
Password
Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:

CREATE AN ACCOUNT

Or use your Academic/Social account:

Congratulations!

You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.

Important!

Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message

CREATE AN ACCOUNT

Name:
Username:
Password:
Verify Password:
E-mail:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Afzal, Muhammad; Gagnon, Alexandre S.; Mansell, Martin G. (2016)
Publisher: IWA Publishing
Languages: English
Types: Article
Subjects:
This paper analyses the impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on the reliability of water supply systems in Scotland. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate catchment runoff, and the reliability of 29 notional and six actual reservoirs was calculated using a simple storage model. The relationship between water supply reliability and the variability of rainfall was then investigated using different measures of variability. A strong correlation was found between reservoir reliability and measures representing the distribution of rainfall between the winter and summer seasons, as well as the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of annual precipitation, quantifying the variability of rainfall between years. In contrast, mainly the intra-annual CUSUM range and the variance of monthly precipitation influenced the reliability of river-intake schemes. The presence of periodic patterns in rainfall anomalies was found to be more prevalent in West Scotland, where reservoir reliability is on average lower than in the East. In addition, a sensitivity analysis revealed the small influence of evapotranspiration on reservoir reliability in comparison to rainfall variability. This study reveals the measures of variability most affecting the reliability of surface water supplies in Scotland, and could therefore help with their management in the context of future climate change.
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • ADELOYE, A. J. & LOW, J. M. 1996. Surface-water abstraction controls in Scotland. Journal of the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management, 10, 123-129.
    • AFZAL, M., GAGNON, A. S. & MANSELL, M. G. 2015. Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 119, 135-159.
    • ALEXANDER, L. V., TETT, S. F. B. & JONSSON, T. 2005. Recent observed changes in severe storms over the United Kingdom and Iceland. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L13704.
    • ALLEN, R. G., PEREIRA, L. S., RAES, D. & SMITH, M. 1998. Crop evapotranspiration - Guidelines for computing crop water requirements Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.
    • ALLEN, R. G., PRUITT, W. O., WRIGHT, J. L., HOWELL, T. A., VENTURA, F., SNYDER, R., ITENFISU, D., STEDUTO, P., BERENGENA, J., YRISARRY, J. B., SMITH, M., PEREIRA, L. S., RAES, D., PERRIER, A., ALVES, I., WALTER, I. & ELLIOTT, R. 2006. A recommendation on standardized surface resistance for hourly calculation of reference ETO by the FAO56 Penman-Monteith method. Agricultural Water Management, 81, 1-22.
    • ANDERSON, P. 1997. Demands and resources for public water supplies in Scotland from 1991 to 2016. Journal of the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management, 11, 164-169.
    • ARNELL, N. W. 1998. Climate change and water resources in Britain. Climatic Change, 39, 83-110.
    • ARNELL, N. W., CHARLTON, M. B. & LOWE, J. A. 2014. The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK. Journal of Hydrology, 510, 424-435.
    • ARNELL, N. W. & REYNARD, N. S. 1996. The effects of climate change due to global warming on river flows in Great Britain. Journal of Hydrology, 183, 397-424.
    • BARNETT, C., HOSSELL, J., PERRY, M., PROCTER, C. & HUGHES, G. 2006. Patterns of climate change across Scotland: Technical Report, Edinburgh, Scotland & Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research.
    • BROWN, C. & WARD, M. N. 2013. Managing Climate Risk in Water Supply Systems, London, IWA Publishing.
    • CHRISTIERSON, B. V., VIDAL, J.-P. & WADE, S. D. 2012. Using UKCP09 probabilistic climate information for UK water resource planning. Journal of Hydrology, 424-425, 48-67.
    • ENFIELD, D. B., MESTAS-NUNEZ, A. M. & TRIMBLE, P. J. 2001. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 2077-2080.
    • FISHER, A. C. & RUBIO, S. J. 1997. Adjusting to climate change: Implications of increased variability and asymmetric adjustment costs for investment in water reserves. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 34, 207-227.
    • FOWLER, H. J., KILSBY, C. G. & O'CONNELL, P. E. 2003. Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system. Water Resources Research, 39, 1222.
    • GAO, G., CHEN, D., REN, G., CHEN, Y. & LIAO, Y. 2006. Spatial and temporal variations and controlling factors of potential evapotranspiration in China: 1956-2000. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 16, 3-12.
    • HUNTINGTON, T. G. 2006. Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis. Journal of Hydrology, 319, 83-95.
    • HURRELL, J. W. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and relationships to regional temperature and precipitation. Science, 269, 676-679.
    • HURRELL, J. W., KUSHNIR, Y., OTTERSEN, G. & VISBECK, M. 2003. An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophysical Monograph Series, 134, 1-35.
    • JOWITT, P. W. & HAY-SMITH, D. 2002. Reservoir yield assessment in a changing Scottish environment. Sci Total Environ, 294, 185-99.
    • KAY, A. L., BELL, V. A., BLYTH, E. M., CROOKS, S. M., DAVIES, H. N. & REYNARD, N. S. 2013. A hydrological perspective on evaporation: historical trends and future projections in Britain. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 4, 193-208.
    • KIEM, A. S. & FRANKS, S. W. 2003. Elevated drought risk due to multi-decadal climate variability. In: BLOSCHL, G., FRANKS, S., KUMAGAI, M., MUSIAKE, K. & ROSBJERG, D. (eds.) Water Resources Systems - Hydrological Risk, Management and Development. Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK: IAHS Press, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.
    • KNIGHT, J. R., FOLLAND, C. K. & SCAIFE, A. A. 2006. Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L17706.
    • KRAUSE, P., BOYLE, D. P. & BÄSE, F. 2005. Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment. Advances in Geosciences, 5, 89-97.
    • MACDONALD, A. M., ROBINS, N. S., BALL, D. F. & DOCHARTAIGH, B. E. O. 2005. An overview of groundwater in Scotland. Scottish Journal of Geology, 41, 3-11.
    • MANSELL, M. G. 2003. Rural and Urban Hydrology, London, Thomas Telford.
    • MARSH, T. J. & TURTON, P. S. 1996. The 1995 drought - a water resources perspective. Weather, 51, 46-53.
    • MASON, P. J. 2010. Climate variability in civil infrastructure planning. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Civil Engineering, 163, 74-80.
    • MAYES, J. 2000. Changing regional climatic gradients in the United Kingdom. Geographical Journal, 166, 125-138.
    • MILLY, P. C. D., BETANCOURT, J., FALKENMARK, M., HIRSCH, R. M., ZBIGNIEW, W., KUNDZEWICZ, D., LETTENMAIER, D. P. & STOUFFER, R. J. 2008. Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science, 319, 573-574.
    • MOORE, R. J. 1985. The Probability-Distributed Principle and Runoff Production at Point and Basin Scales. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 30, 273-297.
    • MOORE, R. J. 2007. The PDM rainfall-runoff model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11, 483-499.
    • NASH, J. E. & SUTCLIFFE, J. V. 1970. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I - A discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology, 10, 282-290.
    • ORR, H. G., WILBY, R. L., HEDGER, M. M. & BROWN, I. 2008. Climate change in the uplands: a UK perspective on safeguarding regulatory ecosystem services. Climate Research, 37, 77-98.
    • OSBORN, T. J. & HULME, M. 2002. Evidence for trends in heavy rainfall events over the UK. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci, 360, 1313-25.
    • SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION AGENCY 1997. Policy no.18: Guidelines on setting of compensation flows. Stirling: SEPA.
    • SINGH, C. R., THOMPSON, J. R., FRENCH, J. R., KINGSTON, D. G. & MACKAY, A. W. 2010. Modelling the impact of prescribed global warming on runoff from headwater catchments of the Irrawaddy River and their implications for the water level regime of Loktak Lake, northeast India. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 1745-1765.
    • SMITH, K. 1977. Water-Resource Management in Scotland. Scottish Geographical Magazine, 93, 66-79.
    • SMITH, K. & BENNETT, A. M. 1994. Recently Increased River Discharge in Scotland - Effects on Flow Hydrology and Some Implications for Water Management. Applied Geography, 14, 123-133.
    • SWEENEY, J. C. & OHARE, G. P. 1992. Geographical Variations in Precipitation Yields and Circulation Types in Britain and Ireland. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 17, 448-463.
    • TRIGO, R. M., POZO-VÁZQUEZ, D., OSBORN, T. J., CASTRO-DÍEZ, Y., GÁMIZFORTIS, S. & ESTEBAN-PARRA, M. J. 2004. North Atlantic oscillation influence on precipitation, river flow and water resources in the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 925-944.
    • UK METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE 2006. MIDAS Land Surface Station data (1853-current), [internet], NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre. Available from http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/view/badc.nerc.ac.uk__ATOM__dataent_ukmo-midas.
    • WADE, S. D., RANCE, J. & REYNARD, N. 2013. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012: Assessing the Impacts on Water Resources to Inform Policy Makers. Water Resources Management, 27, 1085-1109.
    • WERRITTY, A. & FOSTER, M. 1998. Climatic variability and recent changes in rainfall and river flows in Scotland. Second International Symposium on Climate and Water. Espoo, Finland
    • WERRITTY, A. & SUGDEN, D. 2012. Climate change and Scotland: recent trends and impacts. Earth and Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, 103, 133-147.
    • WRIGHT, P. 1995. Water-Resources Management in Scotland. Journal of the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management, 9, 153-163.
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article