Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:


Or use your Academic/Social account:


You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.


Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message


Verify Password:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Hawley, G.; Sagarzazu, I. (2012)
Publisher: Elsevier
Languages: English
Types: Article
Political scientists have long debated theories of electoral party realignments. In this paper, we apply ecological inference methods to statistically analyze the transfer of votes within counties in US presidential elections since 1860. Through this analysis we are able to identify the major periods of party realignment in US history and the counties where these shifts took place. As a result, we are able to provide new insights into American electoral history, and provide strong evidence that the 2008 presidential election did not represent a realigning election as the phrase is generally understood.
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • Abramson, Paul. 1976. \Generational change and the decline of party identi cation in America: 1952-1974." The American Political Science Review 70(2):469{478.
    • Achen, C. H. and W. P. Shively. 1995. Cross-level inference. University of Chicago Press.
    • Alvarez, R. Michael and Jonathan Nagler. 1995. \Economics, Issues and the Perot Candidacy: Voter Choice in the 1992 Presidential Election." American Journal of Political Science 39:714{744.
    • Anselin, Luc and Wendy Cho. 2002. \Spacial E ects and Ecological Inference." Politi 10(3):276{97.
    • Bartels, Larry. 2000. \Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996." American Journal of Political Science 44(1):35{50.
    • Burnham, Walter Dean. 1965. \The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe." American Political Science Review 59:7{28.
    • Burnham, Walter Dean. 1970. Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics. W.W. Norton & Co.
    • Calvo, Ernesto and Marcelo Escolar. 2003. \The Local Voter: A Geographically Weighted Approach to Ecological Inference." American Journal of Political Science 47(1):189{ 204.
    • Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. Chicago and London: The University of Chicago Press.
    • Campbell, James E. 2006. \Party Systems and Realignments in the United States, 1868- 2004." Social Science History 30:359{38.
    • Carmines, Edward G. and James A. Stimson. 1989. Issue evolution : race and the transformation of American politics. Princeton University Press.
    • Caswell, Bruce E. 2009. \The Presidency, The Vote, and The Formation of New Coalitions." Polity 41(3):388{407.
    • Ceaser, James W. and Daniel DiSalvo. 2008. \The Magnitude of the 2008 Democratic Victory: By the Numbers." The Forum 6(4):1{12.
    • Cho, Wendy. 1998. \I the Assumption Fits... : A Comment on the King Ecological Inference Solution." Political Analysis 7:143{163.
    • Cho, Wendy and Brian J. Gaines. 2004. \The limits of ecological inference: The case of split-ticket voting." American Journal of Political Science 48:15271.
    • Clubb, Jerome M., William H. Flanigan and Nancy H. Zingale. 1980. Partisan Realignment: Voters, Parties, and Government in American History. SAGE Publications.
    • Freedman, D. A., J. Sacks S. P. Klein, C. A. Smyth and C. G. Everett. 1991. \Ecological regression and voting rights (with discussion)." Evaluation Review 15:673816.
    • Freedman, D., S. Klein, M. Ostland and M. Roberts. 1998. \Review of A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem." Journal of the American Statistical Association 93:1518{22.
    • Freedman, D., S. Klein, M. Ostland and M. Roberts. 1999. \Response to King's Comment." Journal of the American Statistical Association 94.
    • Goodman, Leo A. 1953. \Ecological Regressions and Behavior of Individuals." American Sociological Review 18(6):663{664.
    • Goodman, Leo A. 1959. \Some Alternatives to Ecological Correlation." The American Journal of Sociology 64(6):610{625.
    • Grofman, B. 1991. \Statistics without substance: A critique of Freedman et al. and Clark and Morrison." Evaluation Review 15:74669.
    • Herron, M. C. and K. W. Shotts. 2004. \Logical inconsistency in EI-based second stage regressions." American Journal of Political Science 48:17283.
    • Imai, Kosuke, Ying Lu and Aaron Strauss. 2008. \Bayesian and Likelihood Inference for 2 x 2 Ecological Tables: An Incomplete-Data Approach." Political Analysis 16:4169.
    • King, Gary, Ori Rosen and Martin A. Tanner. 1999. \Binomial-Beta Hierarchical Models for Ecological Inference." Sociological Methods & Research 28(1):61{90.
    • King, Gary, Ori Rosen and Martin A. Tanner, eds. 2004. Ecological inference: New methodological strategies. Cambridge University Press.
    • Knuckey, Jonathan. 1999. \Classi cation of Presidential Elections: An Update." Polity 31(4):639{653.
    • Ladd, Everett Carll, Jr. and Charles D. Hadley. 1978. Transformations of the American Party System. W.W. Norton.
    • Lublin, David and Stephen Voss. 2002. \Context and the Francophone Support for the Sovereignty of Quebec: An Ecological Analysis." Canadian Journal of Political Science 35(1):75{101.
    • Mack, Charles. 2010. When Political Parties Die: A Cross-National Analysis of Disalignment and Realignment. Praeger.
    • Rapoport, R. B. and Walter J. Stone. 2005. Three's a Crowd: The Dynamic of Third Parties, Ross Perot, and Republican Resurgence. The University of Michigan Press.
    • Robinson, William S. 1950. \Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals." American Sociological Review 15:351357.
    • 0-14 years, non-white 15-19 years, white 15-19 years, non-white 20-74 years, white 20-74 years, non-white 75+ years, white 75+ years, non-white
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Download from

Cite this article