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Hollingsworth, Anthony; Uppala, Sakari; Klinker, Ernst; Burridge, David; Vitart, Frederic; Onvlee, Jeanette; De Vries, J. W.; De Roo, Ad; Pfrang, Christian (2005)
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
Languages: English
Types: Article
The Group on Earth Observations System of Systems, GEOSS, is a co-ordinated initiative by many nations to address the needs for earth-system information expressed by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. We discuss the role of earth-system modelling and data assimilation in transforming earth-system observations into the predictive and status-assessment products required by GEOSS, across many areas of socio-economic interest. First we review recent gains in the predictive skill of operational global earth-system models, on time-scales of days to several seasons. We then discuss recent work to develop from the global predictions a diverse set of end-user applications which can meet GEOSS requirements for information of socio-economic benefit; examples include forecasts of coastal storm surges, floods in large river basins, seasonal crop yield forecasts and seasonal lead-time alerts for malaria epidemics. We note ongoing efforts to extend operational earth-system modelling and assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition, in support of improved services for air-quality forecasts and for treaty assessment. We next sketch likely GEOSS observational requirements in the coming decades. In concluding, we reflect on the cost of earth observations relative to the modest cost of transforming the observations into information of socio-economic value.
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage depletion associated with the 2003 European heat wave. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18405, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023574
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    • Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modeling in Europe. Tellus, 57A(3), 476-487
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    • Cloud clearing of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder hyperspectral infrared radiances using stochastic methods. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D9, D09S18, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006013
    • Development of a European flood forecasting system. Int. J. River Basin Management, 1, 49-59
    • Validation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder temperature and water vapour retrievals with matched radiosonde measurements and forecasts. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D9, D09S15, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006116
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    • Atmospheric induced oceanic tides from ECMWF forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L10615, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022990
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    • The assimilation of AIRS radiance data at ECMWF. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 132, 935-957
    • Evaluation of downscaled DEMETER multi-model ensemble seasonal hindcasts in a northern Italy location by means of a model of wheat growth and soil water balance. Tellus, 57A, 488-497
    • Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction. Tellus , 57A, 217-218
    • Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 381-393 (Downloadable from http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/hess/9/contents4.htm)
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    • Validation of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder radiative transfer algorithm. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D9, D09S06, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006146
    • Accuracy of geophysical parameters derived from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit as a function of fractional cloud cover. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D9, D09S17, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006272
    • Total basin discharge for the Amazon and Mississippi river basins from GRACE and a land-atmosphere water balance. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24404, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024851
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    • Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles. Nature, 439, 576-579
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    • Monthly forecasting at ECMWF. Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 2761- 2779, doi: 10.1175/MWR2826.1
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    The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

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