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Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane (1997)
Publisher: Statistics Norway, Research Department
Languages: English
Types: Research
Subjects: JEL classification: E31, Prisvekst, United Kingdom, Core inflation; inflation target; long-run neutrality; oil price shocks; imported inflation; structural VAR., Inflasjon, Structural vector, Inflation, JEL classification: E61, Oljepriser, Imported inflation, JEL classification: C32, :Social science: 200::Economics: 210::Economics: 212 [VDP], Oil price, Norway
jel: jel:E31, jel:C32, jel:E61
This paper calculates core inflation, by imposing long run restrictions on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing the growth rate of output, inflation and oil prices. Core inflation is identified as that component in inflation that has no long run effect on output. No restrictions are placed on the response of output and inflation to the oil price shocks. The analysis is applied to Norway and the United Kingdom, both oil producing OECD countries. A model that distinguishes between domestic and imported inflation, is also specified for Norway. In both countries, core inflation is a prime mover of CPI (RPI) inflation. However, CPI (RPI) inflation overvalues or undervalues core inflation in many periods, of which oil price shocks are important sources behind this deviation for prolonged periods Keywords: Core inflation, inflation target, long-run neutrality, oil price shocks, imported inflation, structural VAR.
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    • I. Svendsen (1995): Forward- and Backward Looking Models for Norwegian Export Prices R. Barrell and K. A. Magnussen (1996): Counterfactual Analyses of Oil price Shocks using a World Model E. Bowitz and S. I. Hove (1996): Business cycles and fiscal policy: Norway 1973-93 E. Berg, S. Kverndokk and K.E. Rosendahl (1996): Gains from Cartelisation in the Oil Market B. Bye (1996): Taxation, Unemployment and Growth: Dynamic Welfare Effects of "Green" Policies E. Bowitz and Å. Cappelen (1997): Incomes Policies and the Norwegian Economy 1973-93 S. Glomsrød, M.D Monge A. and H. Vennemo (1997): Structural Adjustment and Deforestation in Nicaragua
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