Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:


You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.


Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message


Verify Password:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:

OpenAIRE is about to release its new face with lots of new content and services.
During September, you may notice downtime in services, while some functionalities (e.g. user registration, login, validation, claiming) will be temporarily disabled.
We apologize for the inconvenience, please stay tuned!
For further information please contact helpdesk[at]openaire.eu

fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Adib Bencherif (2015)
Publisher: Globus et Locus
Journal: Glocalism: Journal of Culture
Languages: English
Types: Article
Subjects: risk analysis, geopolitics, abduction, calculation, methodology, General Works, A
This paper is going to explore the logical process behind risk analysis, particularly in geopolitics. The main goal is to demonstrate the ambiguities behind risk calculation and to highlight the continuum between plausibility and probability in risk analysis. To demonstrate it, the author introduces two notions: the inference of abduction, often neglected in the social sciences literature, and the Bayesian calculation. Inspired by the works of Louise Amoore, this paper tries to go further by studying qualitative tools used in geopolitical risk analysis and establishing links between abduction and Bayesian probability. After a brief exploration of some epistemological contradictions in risk analysis, the paper explores different methodological tools used in geopolitical risk analysis, through a comparison between quantitative and qualitative tools. Finally, the author suggests new avenues for research on risk analysis.
  • No references.
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article

Collected from

Cookies make it easier for us to provide you with our services. With the usage of our services you permit us to use cookies.
More information Ok