LOGIN TO YOUR ACCOUNT

Username
Password
Remember Me
Or use your Academic/Social account:

CREATE AN ACCOUNT

Or use your Academic/Social account:

Congratulations!

You have just completed your registration at OpenAire.

Before you can login to the site, you will need to activate your account. An e-mail will be sent to you with the proper instructions.

Important!

Please note that this site is currently undergoing Beta testing.
Any new content you create is not guaranteed to be present to the final version of the site upon release.

Thank you for your patience,
OpenAire Dev Team.

Close This Message

CREATE AN ACCOUNT

Name:
Username:
Password:
Verify Password:
E-mail:
Verify E-mail:
*All Fields Are Required.
Please Verify You Are Human:
fbtwitterlinkedinvimeoflicker grey 14rssslideshare1
Varum, C.A.; Melo, C. (2010)
Publisher: Elsevier
Languages: English
Types: Article
Subjects: Industrial competition, Research work, Management practice, Planning method, Competitiveness, Academic research, Future prospect, Knowledge
This paper provides a systematized overview of patterns in the scenario planning literature published in the last decades. Recently, scenario planning has enjoyed a revival, apparent in the 'boom' in published research on the matter. Consequently, a major issue that needs to be addressed is how to organize the literature along precise lines. A number of reviews that describe the current status of the body of literature and knowledge on scenario planning have made attempts to respond to such requirements. These studies agree that systematizing the existing literature is a necessary step in developing the field. This paper aims to contribute to this purpose. The review of the academic literature here conducted is thought to be useful for both academics and practitioners. For researchers, this systematic overview will be constructive not only in providing an analysis of the directions of published research but also in setting up a research agenda for the future. For managers and practitioners, it provides a clear outline of firm-related articles and discusses their contribution from a managerial point of view. It also raises awareness with regard to future analytical methods, and in particular, to scenario planning and its potential contribution to the competitiveness of firms. The research was carried out under the research Project Enterprise of the Future of the University of Aveiro. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. Instituto de Investigação from University of Aveiro for the Project Enterprise of the Future
  • The results below are discovered through our pilot algorithms. Let us know how we are doing!

    • [1] K.M. Eisenhardt, Strategy as strategic decision making, Sloan Management Review 40 (1999) 65-72.
    • [2] T. J. Chermack, S. A. Lynham, W. E. A. Ruona, A review of scenario planning literature, Futures Research Quarterly Summer 2001 (2001) 7-31.
    • [3] K. Van der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, John Wiley, Chichester, 1996.
    • [4] M.J. Foster, Scenario Planning for Small Businesses, Long Range Planning 26 (1993) 123-129.
    • [5] P.J.H. Schoemaker, Scenario planning - a tool for strategic thinking, Sloan Management Review 36 (1995) 25-40.
    • [6] F. Roubelat, Scenario planning as a networking process, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65 (2000) 99-112.
    • [7] R. Bradfielf, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K.V.D. Heijden, The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures 37 (2005) 795-812.
    • [8] M. Godet, F. Roubelat, Creating the Future: the use and misuse of scenarios, Long Range Planning 29 (2) (1996) 164-171.
    • [9] M. Godet, Creating futures: scenario planning as a strategic management tool, Economica, London, (2001).
    • [10] P. Bishop, A. Hines, T. Collins, The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques, Foresight 9 (1) 5-25.
    • [11] A. Martelli, Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of evolution, Futures Research Quarterly Summer (2001) 57-70.
    • [12] L. Börjeson, M. Höjer, K. Dreborg, T. Ekvall, G. Finnveden, Scenario types and techniques: towards a user‟s guide, Futures 38 (7) (2006) 723-739.
    • [13] S. Millett, The future of scenarios: challenges and opportunities, Strategy and Leadership 32 (2) (2003) 16-24.
    • [14] Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, The use of bibliometrics in the Social Sciences and Humanities, SSHRCC, 2004.
    • [15] F.J. van Raan, The use of bibliometric analysis in research performance assessment and monitoring of interdisciplinary scientific developments, Technikfolgenabschätzung 1 (2003) 20-29.
    • [16] European Foresight Monitoring Network, Mapping Report, European Foresight Monitoring Network, 2005.
    • [17] P.J.H. Schoemaker, Multiple Scenario Development - Its Conceptual and Behavioural Foundation, Strategic Management Journal 14 (1993) 193-213.
    • P.J.H. Schoemaker, When and How to Use Scenario Planning - a Heuristic Approach with Illustration, Journal of Forecasting 10 (1991) 549-564.
    • A. Ghosh, S.L. McLafferty, Locating Stores in Uncertain Environments - a Scenario Planning Approach, Journal of Retailing 58 (1982) 5-22.
    • W. R. Huss, E. J. Honton, Scenario Planning - What Style Should You Use, Long Range Planning 20 (1987) 21-29.
    • D. Myers, A. Kitsuse, Constructing the future in planning: A survey of theories and tools, Journal of Planning Education and Research 19 (2000) 221-231.
    • M. Godet, The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and pitfalls, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65 (2000) 3-22.
    • J.G. Strathman, Analysis of Theoretical, Methodological and Empirical Research in the Journal of Regional Science, Journal of Regional Science 32 (1992) 501-509.
    • S.P. Schnaars, How to develop and use scenarios, Long Range Planning 20 (1) (1987) 105-114.
    • K.D. Miller, H. G. Waller, Scenarios, real options and integrated risk management, Long Range Planning 36 (2003) 93-107.
    • J.H. Ahn, A. Skudlark, Managing risk in a new telecommunications service development process through a scenario planning approach, Journal of Information Technology 17(2002) 103-118.
    • P. Cornelius, A. Van De Putte, M. Romani, Three decades of scenario planning in Shell, California Management Review 48 (2005) 92-109.
    • M.E. Raynor, X. Leroux, Strategic flexibility in R&D, Research-Technology Management 47 (2004) 27-32.
    • V.A. Masch, Return to the "natural" process of decision-making leads to good strategies, Journal of Evolutionary Economics 14 (2004) 431-462.
    • G.W. Winch, D. J. W. Arthur, User-parameterised generic models: a solution to the conundrum of modelling access for SMEs?, System Dynamics Review 18 (2002) 339-357.
    • F. Roubelat, Scenarios to challenge strategic paradigms: Lessons from 2025, Futures 38 (2006) 519-527.
    • G.Winch, Dynamic visioning for dynamic environments, Journal of the Operational Research Society 50 (1999) 354-361.
    • A. Wright, Using scenarios to challenge and change management thinking, Total Quality Management & Business Excellence 16 (2005) 87-103.
    • A.P. De Geus, Planning as learning, Harvard Business Review, March-April (1988) 70-74.
    • G. Cairns, G. Wright, K. Van der Heijden, R. Bradfield, G. Burt, Enhancing foresight between multiple agencies: Issues in the use of scenario thinking to overcome fragmentation, Futures 38 (2006) 1010-1025.
    • R. Phelps, C. Chan, S. C. Kapsalis, Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies, Journal of Business Research 51 (2001) 223-232.
    • P. Malaska, Multiple scenario approach and strategic behaviour in European companies, Strategic Management Journal 6 (1985) 339-355.
    • P. Malaska, M. Malmivirta, T. Meristo, S.O. Hanson, Scenarios in Europe: Who uses them and why?, Long Rang Planning 17 (5) (1984) 45-49.
    • T. Meristo, Not forecasts but multiple scenarios when coping with uncertainties in the competitive environment, European Journal of Operational Research 38 (1989) 350-357.
    • R. Linneman, H.E. Klein, The use of multiple scenarios by US industrial companies, Long Range Planning, 12 (1) (1979) 83-90.
    • P. Wack, Uncharted waters ahead, Harvard Business Review, September-October (1985) 73-89.
    • K. Moyer, Scenario planning at British Airways - A case study, Long Range Planning 29 (1996) 172-181.
    • J. Elkington, A. Trisoglio, Developing realistic scenarios for the environment: Lessons from Brent Spar, Long Range Planning 29 (1996) 762-769.
    • G. Islei, G. Lockett, P. Naudé, Judgemental modelling as an aid to scenario planning and analysis, OmegaInternational Journal of Management Science 27 (1999) 61-73.
    • G. Burt, K. van der Heijden, First steps: towards purposeful activities in scenario thinking and future studies, Futures 35 (2003) 1011-1026.
    • J.D. Strauss, M. Radnor, Roadmapping for dynamic and uncertain environments, Research-Technology Management 47(2004) 51-57.
    • G.P. Hodgkinson, G. Wright, Confronting strategic inertia in a top management team: Learning from failure, Organization Studies 23 (2002) 949-977.
    • M.P.E. Cunha, P. Palma, N.G. Costa, Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight, Futures 38 (2006) 942-955.
    • A.D. Wright, Scenario planning: a continuous improvement approach to strategy, Total Quality Management 11 (2000) 433-438.
    • J. Fotr, L. Svecova, Risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making, Politicka Ekonomie 54 (2006) 87- 107.
    • I. Wilson, Strategic-Planning Isn‟t Dead - It Changed, Long Range Planning 27 (1994) 12-24.
    • F.Mobasheri, L. H. Orren, F. P. Sioshansi, Scenario Planning at Southern-California Edison, Interfaces 19 (1989) 31-44.
    • R. W Mills, B. Weinstein, Calculating shareholder value in a turbulent environment, Long Range Planning 29 (1996) 76-83.
    • M. S. Sodhi, How to do strategic supply-chain planning, MIT Sloan Management Review 45 (2003) 69-75.
    • J. Kiely, N. Beamish, C. Armistead, Scenarios for future service encounters, Service Industries Journal 24 (2004) 131-149.
    • A.G. Pateli, G. M. Giaglis, Technology innovation-induced business model change: a contingency approach, Journal of Organizational Change Management 18 (2005) 167-183.
    • S. Yearout, G. Miles, R. H. Koonce, Multi-level visioning, Training & Development 55 (2001) 30-39.
    • T.U. Daim, G. Rueda, H. Martin, P. Gerdsri, Forecasting emerging Technologies: use of bibliometrics and patent analysis, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 73 (2006) 981-1012.
    • T. Sabol, R. Delina, Scenario planning, Ekonomicky Casopis 52 (2004) 942-956.
    • M.H. Xiong, S. B. Tor, L. P. Khoo, WebATP: a Web-based flexible available-to-promise computation system, Production Planning & Control 14 (2003) 662-672.
    • B. Sager, Scenarios on the future of biotechnology, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 68 (2001) 109-129.
    • D. Randall, Consumer strategies for the Internet: Four scenarios, Long Range Planning 30 (1997) 157-168.
    • C. F. Larson, Industrial R & D in 2008, Research-Technology Management 41 (1998) 19-24.
    • C.W. Thomas, Strategic technology assessment, future products and competitive advantage, International Journal of Technology Management 11 (1996) 651-666.
    • P. Spies, Experience with Futures Research in South-Africa, Futures 26 (1994) 964-979.
    • P.R. Stokke, W.K. Ralston, T.A. Boyce, Scenario Planning for Norwegian Oil and Gas, Long Range Planning 23 (1990) 17-26.
    • R.W. Blanning, B.A. Reinig, Building scenarios for Hong Kong using EMS, Long Range Planning 31 (1998) 900-910.
    • Elkington, J. and A. Trisoglio (1996). "Developing realistic scenarios for the environment: Lessons from Brent Spar." Long Range Planning 29(6): 762-769.
    • Foa, R. and M. Howard (2006). "Use of Monte Carlo simulation for the public sector - An evidence-based approach to scenario planning." International Journal of Market Research 48(1): 27-48.
    • Foster, M. J. (1993). "Scenario Planning for Small Businesses." Long Range Planning 26(1): 123- 129.
    • Fotr, J. and L. Svecova (2006). "Risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making." Politicka Ekonomie 54(1): 87-107.
    • Frentzel, W. Y., J. M. Bryson, et al. (2000). "Strategic planning in the military - The US Naval Security Group changes its strategy, 1992-1998." Long Range Planning 33(3): 402-429.
    • Galer, G. and W. Kasper (1982). "Scenario Planning for Australia." Long Range Planning 15(4): 50-55.
    • Ghosh, A. and S. L. McLafferty (1982). "Locating Stores in Uncertain Environments - a Scenario Planning Approach." Journal of Retailing 58(4): 5-22.
    • Godet, M. (2000). "The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and pitfalls." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65(1): 3-22.
    • Goodwin, P. and G. Wright (2001). "Enhancing strategy evaluation in scenario planning: A role for decision analysis." Journal of Management Studies 38(1): 1-16.
    • Groenenberg, H., K. Blok, et al. (2005). "Projection of energy-intensive material production for bottom-up scenario building." Ecological Economics 53(1): 75-99.
    • Habana, P. I. (1993). "Building Scenarios for Education in South-East Asia." Futures 25(9): 975- 988.
    • Harper, P. R., S. Phillips, et al. (2005). "Geographical simulation modelling for the regional planning of oral and maxillofacial surgery across London." Journal of the Operational Research Society 56(2): 134-143.
    • Harries, C. (2003). "Correspondence to what? Coherence to what? What is good scenario-based decision making?" Technological Forecasting and Social Change 70(8): 797-817.
    • Heemskerk, M. (2003). "Scenarios in anthropology: reflections on possible futures of the Suriname Maroons." Futures 35(9): 931-949.
    • Hodgkinson, G. P. and G. Wright (2002). "Confronting strategic inertia in a top management team: Learning from failure." Organization Studies 23(6): 949-977.
    • Huss, W. R. and E. J. Honton (1987). "Scenario Planning - What Style Should You Use." Long Range Planning 20(4): 21-29.
    • Islei, G., G. Lockett, et al. (1999). "Judgemental modelling as an aid to scenario planning and analysis." Omega-International Journal of Management Science 27(1): 61-73.
    • Janoff, S. and M. Weisbord (2006). "Future search as 'real-time' action research." Futures 38(6): 716-722.
    • Johnston, R. (2001). "Foresight - refining the process." International Journal of Technology Management 21(7-8): 711-725.
    • Kassler, P. (1995). "Scenarios for world energy: Barricades or new frontiers." Long Range Planning 28(6): 38-47.
    • Kiely, J., N. Beamish, et al. (2004). "Scenarios for future service encounters." Service Industries Journal 24(3): 131-149.
    • Larson, C. F. (1998). "Industrial R & D in 2008." Research-Technology Management 41(6): 19- 24.
    • Lempert, R. J., D. G. Groves, et al. (2006). "A general, analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios." Management Science 52(4): 514-528.
    • List, D. (2004). "Multiple pasts, converging presents, and alternative futures." Futures 36(1): 23- 43.
    • Love, A. J. and C. Russon (2000). "Building a worldwide evaluation community: past, present, and future." Evaluation and Program Planning 23(4): 449-459.
    • MacKay, R. B. and P. McKiernan (2004). "The role of hindsight in foresight: refining strategic reasoning." Futures 36(2): 161-179.
    • Masch, V. A. (2004). "Return to the "natural"process of decision-making leads to good strategies." Journal of Evolutionary Economics 14(4): 431-462.
    • Masini, E. B. and J. M. Vasquez (2000). "Scenarios as seen from a human and social perspective." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65(1): 49-66.
    • Miller, K. D. and H. G. Waller (2003). "Scenarios, real options and integrated risk management." Long Range Planning 36(1): 93-107.
    • Mills, R. W. and B. Weinstein (1996). "Calculating shareholder value in a turbulent environment." Long Range Planning 29(1): 76-83.
    • Mobasheri, F., L. H. Orren, et al. (1989). "Scenario Planning at Southern-California Edison." Interfaces 19(5): 31-44.
    • Moyer, K. (1996). "Scenario planning at British Airways - A case study." Long Range Planning 29(2): 172-181.
    • Myers, D. and A. Kitsuse (2000). "Constructing the future in planning: A survey of theories and tools." Journal of Planning Education and Research 19(3): 221-231.
    • Narayanan, V. K. and L. Fahey (2006). "Institutional evolution as an emerging focus in scenario planning." Futures 38(8): 972-992.
    • Neumann, I. B. and E. Overland (2001). "Perspectivistic scenario-building: history and method." Tidsskrift for Samfunnsforskning 42(3): 373-408.
    • O'Brien, F. A. (2004). "Scenario planning - lessons for practice from teaching and learning." European Journal of Operational Research 152(3): 709-722.
    • Page, S., I. Yeoman, et al. (2006). "A case study of best practice - Visit Scotland's prepared response to an influenza pandemic." Tourism Management 27(3): 361-393.
    • Pateli, A. G. and G. M. Giaglis (2005). "Technology innovation-induced business model change: a contingency approach." Journal of Organizational Change Management 18(2): 167-183.
    • Phelps, R., C. Chan, et al. (2001). "Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies." Journal of Business Research 51(3): 223-232.
    • Sager, B. (2001). "Scenarios on the future of biotechnology." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 68(2): 109-129.
    • Saxena, J. P., Sushil, et al. (1992). "Scenario Building - a Critical-Study of Energy-Conservation in the Indian Cement Industry." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 41(2): 121-146.
    • Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1991). "When and How to Use Scenario Planning - a Heuristic Approach with Illustration." Journal of Forecasting 10(6): 549-564.
    • Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1993). "Multiple Scenario Development - Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation." Strategic Management Journal 14(3): 193-213.
    • Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). "Scenario Planning - a Tool for Strategic Thinking." Sloan Management Review 36(2): 25-40.
    • Selin, C. (2006). "Trust and the illusive force of scenarios." Futures 38(1): 1-14.
    • Slaughter, R. A. (2002). "Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst." Futures 34(3-4): 349-363.
    • Sodhi, M. S. (2003). "How to do strategic supply-chain planning." Mit Sloan Management Review 45(1): 69-75.
    • Spies, P. (1994). "Experience with Futures Research in South-Africa." Futures 26(9): 964-979.
    • Stokke, P. R., W. K. Ralston, et al. (1990). "Scenario Planning for Norwegian Oil and Gas." Long Range Planning 23(2): 17-26.
    • Stormer, F. (2003). "Making the shift: Moving from "ethics pays" to an inter-systems model of business." Journal of Business Ethics 44(4): 279-289.
    • Strauss, J. D. and M. Radnor (2004). "Roadmapping for dynamic and uncertain environments." Research-Technology Management 47(2): 51-57.
    • Thomas, C. W. (1996). "Strategic technology assessment, future products and competitive advantage." International Journal of Technology Management 11(5-6): 651-666.
    • van der Heijden, K. (2000). "Scenarios and forecasting: Two perspectives." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65(1): 31-36.
    • Wilson, I. (1994). "Strategic-Planning Isnt Dead - It Changed." Long Range Planning 27(4): 12- 24.
  • No related research data.
  • No similar publications.

Share - Bookmark

Cite this article