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Denning, Dorothy E. (2003)
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in Grave New World: Global Dangers in the 21st Century (Michael Brown ed.), Georgetown Press, 2003. (.pdf of prepublication version) This paper examines key trends and developments in information technology, and the implications of those developments on stability and security. Focus is on cyber threats to computer networks, including information theft and sabotage, and acts that disrupt or deny services. Seven trend areas are examined: ubiquity, mobility, hacking tools, performance, vulnerabilities, groundedness, and information security. Trends in these areas are related to an increase in the number and severity of cyber-related security incidents, and the potential to cause considerable damage. The paper also examines the prospects for the future, particularly the threat of cyber terrorism. Finally, it summarizes initiatives and recommendations for improving the cyber defense capability of the nation.
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